{ "ticker": { "uuid": "746d3e95-cf85-4986-aa25-f93cc5d94c6c", "symbol": "TMFS", "name": "MOTLEY FOOL SMALL-CAP GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.289, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.056, "architecture_energy": 44.273, "architecture_maturity": 7.326, "architecture_confidence": 74.158, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.54, "rotation_up": 57.63, "upward_expansion": 78.43, "deceleration": 55.83, "rotation_down": 18.56, "downward_expansion": 5.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.89284, 35.67826, 35.139062, 34.812146 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.0135, "trend_reference": 34.703207, "distance_from_trend": 0.066573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.033623, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12048, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.303878, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.032167, "excess_performance": -0.093458, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066573, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002535, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12048, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037303, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048754, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032167, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.258365, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27062, "relative_activity": 0.854429, "balance": 1.258365, "dry_up": 0.605105, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035005, "annualized_volatility": 0.205226, "from_high_reference": -0.00954, "from_low_reference": 0.196682 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.703207, "fair_value_reference": 33.033623, "structural_low": 30.9301, "invalidation": 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"activity_lines": [ 35.672547, 35.028153, 34.576539, 34.550841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.3964, "volume": 19741, "typical_volume": 34454.85, "trend": 34.711077, "fair_value": 32.912912, "relative_strength": -6.605532, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.812448, "energy": 53.557539, "activity_lines": [ 35.652047, 35.155824, 34.692554, 34.593994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.0293, "volume": 10801, "typical_volume": 32983.75, "trend": 34.675387, "fair_value": 32.945295, "relative_strength": -6.691747, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.772736, "energy": 40.219073, "activity_lines": [ 35.464527, 35.212996, 34.774052, 34.614525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.4211, "volume": 19057, "typical_volume": 31795.9, "trend": 34.69609, "fair_value": 32.984687, "relative_strength": -6.371871, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.893499, "energy": 21.516116, "activity_lines": [ 35.400987, 35.31142, 34.887726, 34.662635 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.0135, "volume": 27062, "typical_volume": 31672.6, "trend": 34.703207, "fair_value": 33.033623, "relative_strength": -5.303878, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.055916, "energy": 44.272625, "activity_lines": [ 35.89284, 35.67826, 35.139062, 34.812146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }