{ "ticker": { "uuid": "746e91e5-fabe-4f9b-81ad-9985fc906a15", "symbol": "EPEJ", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Pacific ex Japan Min TE Min TE UCITS ETF Cap", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.044, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.338, "architecture_energy": 96.285, "architecture_maturity": 38.308, "architecture_confidence": 62.766, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.52, "rotation_up": 89.18, "upward_expansion": 99.98, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 8.18, "downward_expansion": 21.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.498134, 17.198182, 16.931581, 16.776138 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 17.868, "trend_reference": 16.562134, "distance_from_trend": 0.078847, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.31991, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247773, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.097409, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.112439, "excess_performance": -0.058452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078847, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037884, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247773, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052606, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040974, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00922, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112439, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.080415, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4438, "relative_activity": 0.230361, "balance": 2.080415, "dry_up": 0.308831, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016824, "annualized_volatility": 0.120381, "from_high_reference": -0.000447, "from_low_reference": 0.217664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.562134, "fair_value_reference": 14.31991, "structural_low": 15.682, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.000884, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006565, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.067786, "worst_return": -0.089787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.008035, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024626, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.085273, "worst_return": -0.081258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001454, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.026093, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.103745, "worst_return": -0.095838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 14.221282, "relative_strength": -5.054236, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.863681, "energy": 71.877513, "activity_lines": [ 16.922, 16.765309, 16.659029, 16.555463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.360001, "volume": 6805, "typical_volume": 23452.8, "trend": 16.409534, "fair_value": 14.250974, "relative_strength": -3.713959, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.064228, "energy": 84.01929, "activity_lines": [ 17.1, 16.889346, 16.736848, 16.62126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.424, "volume": 5815, "typical_volume": 21368.0, "trend": 16.481867, "fair_value": 14.28368, "relative_strength": -3.859963, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.592167, "energy": 87.444117, "activity_lines": [ 17.253734, 17.010873, 16.815829, 16.68671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.868, "volume": 4438, "typical_volume": 19265.4, "trend": 16.562134, "fair_value": 14.31991, "relative_strength": -4.097409, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.337617, "energy": 96.285394, "activity_lines": [ 17.498134, 17.198182, 16.931581, 16.776138 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }