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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.686, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.633, "architecture_energy": 35.266, "architecture_maturity": 57.766, "architecture_confidence": 36.194, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.04, "rotation_up": 42.87, "upward_expansion": 70.89, "deceleration": 71.0, "rotation_down": 25.31, "downward_expansion": 8.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.123994, 80.110814, 78.530128, 77.699513 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 80.18, "trend_reference": 76.887728, "distance_from_trend": 0.042819, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.191015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052355, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.152208, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008374, "excess_performance": -0.165873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042819, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058274, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052355, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054811, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021597, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008374, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.154131, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125, "relative_activity": 2.196837, "balance": 0.154131, "dry_up": 3.905975, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037611, "annualized_volatility": 0.181455, "from_high_reference": -0.039581, "from_low_reference": 0.247905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.887728, "fair_value_reference": 76.191015, "structural_low": 69.660004, 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79.839016, 78.563936, 76.666419, 76.172722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 80.139931, "volume": 46, "typical_volume": 17.85, "trend": 75.043265, "fair_value": 75.78487, "relative_strength": -9.626487, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.538628, "energy": 73.562996, "activity_lines": [ 80.272444, 79.0665, 77.02899, 76.532232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 81.669998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 15.85, "trend": 75.569019, "fair_value": 75.893862, "relative_strength": -5.708622, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.704166, "energy": 76.047798, "activity_lines": [ 80.966565, 79.708352, 77.534774, 76.959763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 79.879997, "volume": 83, "typical_volume": 18.9, "trend": 76.011455, "fair_value": 75.999432, "relative_strength": -8.611435, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.724665, "energy": 61.059516, "activity_lines": [ 80.762019, 79.900566, 77.877021, 77.237891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.459999, "volume": 681, "typical_volume": 52.2, "trend": 76.473397, "fair_value": 76.093662, "relative_strength": -8.658128, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.488521, "energy": 40.12433, "activity_lines": [ 80.304979, 79.948781, 78.174406, 77.460378 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.18, "volume": 125, "typical_volume": 56.9, "trend": 76.887728, "fair_value": 76.191015, "relative_strength": -10.152208, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.632964, "energy": 35.265779, "activity_lines": [ 80.123994, 80.110814, 78.530128, 77.699513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }