{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7471de30-1d15-4e92-80e5-47618003a05a", "symbol": "HRL-F74", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4D) S&P Health Care", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.145, "architecture_energy": 63.558, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.824, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.87, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.36, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.442, 55.29, 1323.24119, 2318.220108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 56.8, "trend_reference": 3492.569, "distance_from_trend": -0.983737, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5264.269679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98921, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.831281, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989673, "excess_performance": -1.018573, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983737, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346324, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98921, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.843424, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.672175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989673, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.13207, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29863, "relative_activity": 1.471595, "balance": 1.13207, "dry_up": 0.844665, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 6.950339, "annualized_volatility": 6.327545, "from_high_reference": -0.990358, "from_low_reference": 0.205177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3492.569, "fair_value_reference": 5264.269679, "structural_low": 47.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.002946, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.033757, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.091587, "worst_return": -0.989474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.022068, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.163614, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.058782, "worst_return": -0.989097, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002685, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.233245, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.101139, "worst_return": -0.10651, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3864.057, "fair_value": 5333.139167, "relative_strength": -98.948017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.98044, "energy": 68.025908, "activity_lines": [ 55.260667, 313.987818, 1865.621095, 2797.605441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.56, "volume": 17570, "typical_volume": 19065.05, "trend": 3680.775667, "fair_value": 5299.168397, "relative_strength": -98.84232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.574135, "energy": 67.408289, "activity_lines": [ 56.156, 140.913091, 1581.842476, 2552.024989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.8, "volume": 29863, "typical_volume": 20292.95, "trend": 3492.569, "fair_value": 5264.269679, "relative_strength": -98.831281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.144745, "energy": 63.558155, "activity_lines": [ 56.442, 55.29, 1323.24119, 2318.220108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }