{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7471f70b-97e9-4104-9ae2-aa709ec05e53", "symbol": "BIOF", "name": "Biofrigas Sweden AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.587, "architecture_energy": 38.53, "architecture_maturity": 69.943, "architecture_confidence": 92.89, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 22.09, "upward_expansion": 4.56, "deceleration": 51.54, "rotation_down": 51.06, "downward_expansion": 77.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1717, 0.174445, 0.188319, 0.201516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.171, "trend_reference": 0.218583, "distance_from_trend": -0.21769, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.603929, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.716854, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.92783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.269231, "excess_performance": -0.330725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.21769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17365, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.716854, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013031, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.399278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133479, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.269231, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.004944, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1232724, "relative_activity": 0.906995, "balance": 1.004944, "dry_up": 0.584309, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208727, "annualized_volatility": 0.839443, "from_high_reference": -0.601399, "from_low_reference": 0.175258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.218583, "fair_value_reference": 0.603929, "structural_low": 0.1455, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.348837, "directional_follow_through": 0.651163, "median_excess_return": -0.047181, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.809969, "worst_return": -0.44302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.104298, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.079391, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.133333, "worst_return": -0.557098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.193182, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.281646, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": -0.120588, "worst_return": -0.577465, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.465854, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171674, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.310777, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"typical_volume": 1930761.25, "trend": 0.238217, "fair_value": 0.651134, "relative_strength": -35.369648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.974, "energy": 59.809042, "activity_lines": [ 0.177933, 0.190918, 0.204645, 0.21716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1695, "volume": 988680, "typical_volume": 1948518.35, "trend": 0.2339, "fair_value": 0.639432, "relative_strength": -39.536094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.190537, "energy": 60.767073, "activity_lines": [ 0.1735, 0.185436, 0.199976, 0.212727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1655, "volume": 495980, "typical_volume": 1823048.8, "trend": 0.22815, "fair_value": 0.626904, "relative_strength": -41.154203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.058416, "energy": 58.034093, "activity_lines": [ 0.170033, 0.180236, 0.195181, 0.208314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.175, "volume": 459219, "typical_volume": 1539075.8, "trend": 0.223217, "fair_value": 0.615077, "relative_strength": -38.03834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.868828, "energy": 38.023572, "activity_lines": [ 0.1717, 0.177482, 0.191598, 0.204885 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.171, "volume": 1232724, "typical_volume": 1359129.15, "trend": 0.218583, "fair_value": 0.603929, "relative_strength": -39.92783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.586885, "energy": 38.529942, "activity_lines": [ 0.1717, 0.174445, 0.188319, 0.201516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }