{ "ticker": { "uuid": "747a9dd3-a0cc-4a4c-9854-bd8f65f30a1a", "symbol": "SBEG", "name": "UBS BBG USD EM Sovereign UCITS ETF hGBP dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.503, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.87, "architecture_energy": 18.888, "architecture_maturity": 22.151, "architecture_confidence": 77.001, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.4, "rotation_up": 27.14, "upward_expansion": 56.05, "deceleration": 87.03, "rotation_down": 34.18, "downward_expansion": 22.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 840.95, 843.134091, 840.980357, 838.173804 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 844.375, "trend_reference": 837.741799, "distance_from_trend": 0.007918, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 809.259329, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043392, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.877436, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016274, "excess_performance": -0.067509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007918, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000153, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043392, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000818, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068774, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025782, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016274, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.125518, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13942, "relative_activity": 0.858796, "balance": 1.125518, "dry_up": 0.530157, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013434, "annualized_volatility": 0.06803, "from_high_reference": -0.019841, "from_low_reference": 0.054826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 837.741799, "fair_value_reference": 809.259329, "structural_low": 802.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00244, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.012597, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.026154, "worst_return": -0.053905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005657, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.059621, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.04147, "worst_return": -0.047551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.029908, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.080833, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.054377, "worst_return": -0.15956, 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0.005418, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017331, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004362, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.00293, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.870055, "energy": 18.887966, "activity_lines": [ 840.95, 843.134091, 840.980357, 838.173804 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }