{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7480e5d3-d96e-4cae-ba32-cb7c9746811e", "symbol": "688383", "name": "Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.441, "architecture_energy": 26.843, "architecture_maturity": 66.96, "architecture_confidence": 72.38, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.95, "rotation_up": 14.13, "upward_expansion": 42.79, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 49.6, "downward_expansion": 36.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.540666, 131.063455, 132.646667, 121.943226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 118.559998, "trend_reference": 107.830667, "distance_from_trend": 0.099502, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 72.540777, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.634391, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 29.514387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.576386, "excess_performance": 0.61959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099502, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.293833, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.634391, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219111, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.295144, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041699, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.576386, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.651356, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14087780, "relative_activity": 1.364752, "balance": 1.651356, "dry_up": 1.273813, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.237011, "annualized_volatility": 0.867565, "from_high_reference": -0.421659, "from_low_reference": 1.009491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.830667, "fair_value_reference": 72.540777, "structural_low": 59.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051615, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.008098, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.461811, "worst_return": -0.365038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.040239, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.427362, "worst_return": -0.409802, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.296791, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.270149, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.69736, "worst_return": -0.414122, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": 33.216792, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.865195, "energy": 36.401341, "activity_lines": [ 150.712669, 154.646001, 136.945858, 122.057957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 103.099998, "volume": 14350548, "typical_volume": 9570711.3, "trend": 105.976333, "fair_value": 72.91395, "relative_strength": 18.349699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.95773, "energy": 23.121712, "activity_lines": [ 130.556001, 145.868001, 135.433857, 121.937032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.0, "volume": 13083153, "typical_volume": 9824694.4, "trend": 106.487666, "fair_value": 72.634438, "relative_strength": 6.706117, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.962361, "energy": 27.952566, "activity_lines": [ 113.250667, 135.851273, 132.919953, 121.164366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 118.559998, "volume": 14087780, "typical_volume": 10322591.2, "trend": 107.830667, "fair_value": 72.540777, "relative_strength": 29.514387, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.440741, "energy": 26.842546, "activity_lines": [ 110.540666, 131.063455, 132.646667, 121.943226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }