{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7481157c-c502-4bd6-b2b7-08fb453143b9", "symbol": "SPEC", "name": "SpectraCure AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.901, "architecture_energy": 44.16, "architecture_maturity": 33.629, "architecture_confidence": 85.8, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.62, "rotation_up": 15.87, "upward_expansion": 5.71, "deceleration": 50.59, "rotation_down": 57.52, "downward_expansion": 76.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.037367, 0.043881, 0.059641, 0.067745 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.038, "trend_reference": 0.078857, "distance_from_trend": -0.518115, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.66655, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.977198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.825223, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.647495, "excess_performance": -0.70899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.518115, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.32356, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.977198, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007867, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.728252, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043423, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.647495, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.033011, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18811401, "relative_activity": 1.784607, "balance": 1.033011, "dry_up": 1.610872, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.763117, "annualized_volatility": 2.045067, "from_high_reference": -0.879365, "from_low_reference": 0.258278 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.078857, "fair_value_reference": 1.66655, "structural_low": 0.0302, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.101036, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": -0.101256, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 1.095525, "worst_return": -0.560411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.100295, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.161244, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.472131, "worst_return": -0.895204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.292767, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.414324, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.36569, "worst_return": -0.890408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.204545, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.645191, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184168, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148668, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.867506, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": 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"direction": -58.883174, "energy": 64.050237, "activity_lines": [ 0.049297, 0.062686, 0.07089, 0.07769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.032, "volume": 22516154, "typical_volume": 9311597.5, "trend": 0.085744, "fair_value": 1.733658, "relative_strength": -77.396401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.936927, "energy": 59.94874, "activity_lines": [ 0.043522, 0.055314, 0.066626, 0.07395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0332, "volume": 11539321, "typical_volume": 9724912.45, "trend": 0.08163, "fair_value": 1.698101, "relative_strength": -76.317165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.501804, "energy": 56.938993, "activity_lines": [ 0.039315, 0.048696, 0.062763, 0.07056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.038, "volume": 18811401, "typical_volume": 10540921.3, "trend": 0.078857, "fair_value": 1.66655, "relative_strength": -72.825223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.901137, "energy": 44.159878, "activity_lines": [ 0.037367, 0.043881, 0.059641, 0.067745 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }