{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74850832-cbe4-49e1-8a98-d1f072990c54", "symbol": "LGUS", "name": "L&G US Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.635, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.342, "architecture_energy": 67.55, "architecture_maturity": 89.806, "architecture_confidence": 65.049, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.13, "rotation_up": 53.46, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.45, "rotation_down": 29.21, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.621, 26.521636, 26.134024, 25.530785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.174999, "trend_reference": 24.819833, "distance_from_trend": 0.09489, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.109218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287352, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.170177, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.160581, "excess_performance": -0.010311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09489, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04046, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287352, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035574, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006025, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.160581, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.385781, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6020, "relative_activity": 0.192341, "balance": 2.385781, "dry_up": 0.816213, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017918, "annualized_volatility": 0.12019, "from_high_reference": -0.003666, "from_low_reference": 0.236351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.819833, "fair_value_reference": 21.109218, "structural_low": 22.370001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.011654, "positive_rate": 0.621622, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.007432, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.066132, "worst_return": -0.110275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.041313, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.001436, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.117055, "worst_return": -0.063489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.068833, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.007691, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.201811, "worst_return": -0.141078, "sufficient": true }, { 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25.023323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.450001, "volume": 32179, "typical_volume": 36118.2, "trend": 24.535333, "fair_value": 20.904865, "relative_strength": -2.743316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.917016, "energy": 65.543022, "activity_lines": [ 26.502667, 26.373546, 25.724072, 25.153204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.455, "volume": 31504, "typical_volume": 35162.85, "trend": 24.630333, "fair_value": 20.972064, "relative_strength": -2.484102, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.700573, "energy": 65.116755, "activity_lines": [ 26.501, 26.408727, 25.862072, 25.277054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.105, "volume": 32482, "typical_volume": 33570.25, "trend": 24.716833, "fair_value": 21.037212, "relative_strength": -4.308562, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.107367, "energy": 59.804654, "activity_lines": [ 26.382, 26.368273, 25.953524, 25.372194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.174999, "volume": 6020, "typical_volume": 31298.5, "trend": 24.819833, "fair_value": 21.109218, "relative_strength": -3.170177, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.34153, "energy": 67.549752, "activity_lines": [ 26.621, 26.521636, 26.134024, 25.530785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }