{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74891e2a-821d-4a13-91c9-356a2d67894f", "symbol": "VFX", "name": "VISIONFLEX FPO [VFX]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.361, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.272, "architecture_energy": 17.597, "architecture_maturity": 42.589, "architecture_confidence": 63.815, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.67, "rotation_up": 27.1, "upward_expansion": 19.57, "deceleration": 43.11, "rotation_down": 30.54, "downward_expansion": 55.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0526, 0.052664, 0.052088, 0.056861 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.05, "trend_reference": 0.06635, "distance_from_trend": -0.24642, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.201207, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.751499, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.425826, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.468085, "excess_performance": -0.531791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.24642, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.751499, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063526, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.424258, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150165, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.468085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.343375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56975, "relative_activity": 0.3177, "balance": 2.343375, "dry_up": 1.957597, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.232308, "annualized_volatility": 1.257525, "from_high_reference": -0.714286, "from_low_reference": 0.428571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.06635, "fair_value_reference": 0.201207, "structural_low": 0.035, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.153846, "median_excess_return": -0.107273, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.308511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.211112, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.231201, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.56383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.375001, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.414246, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.318181, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.28, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.159574, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.092308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.4125, "volume": 7258, "typical_volume": 76848.65, "trend": 0.342222, "fair_value": 0.717786, "relative_strength": 10.518703, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.242267, "energy": 61.878225, 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23.719902, "activity_lines": [ 0.057167, 0.052255, 0.053748, 0.06032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.059, "volume": 93230, "typical_volume": 148359.9, "trend": 0.069317, "fair_value": 0.20618, "relative_strength": -30.049601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.242262, "energy": 21.373862, "activity_lines": [ 0.058933, 0.053773, 0.053874, 0.059569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.045, "volume": 563113, "typical_volume": 176515.55, "trend": 0.06765, "fair_value": 0.20353, "relative_strength": -47.173279, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.116335, "energy": 18.612717, "activity_lines": [ 0.054433, 0.052709, 0.052695, 0.058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.05, "volume": 56975, "typical_volume": 179336.05, "trend": 0.06635, "fair_value": 0.201207, "relative_strength": -42.425826, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.272135, "energy": 17.597006, "activity_lines": [ 0.0526, 0.052664, 0.052088, 0.056861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }