{ "ticker": { "uuid": "748db2ee-1e8c-45b8-9d07-c261f0926960", "symbol": "DXWO", "name": "Ailis D-X MSCI World Screened UCITS ETF X EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.506, "architecture_energy": 67.45, "architecture_maturity": 86.5, "architecture_confidence": 65.054, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.56, "rotation_up": 54.0, "upward_expansion": 82.87, "deceleration": 71.35, "rotation_down": 28.76, "downward_expansion": 11.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.612933, 6.584982, 6.483529, 6.34094 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.757, "trend_reference": 6.1775, "distance_from_trend": 0.093808, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.665819, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19259, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.087434, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.148759, "excess_performance": -0.022133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093808, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04045, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19259, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060067, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001155, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148759, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.326695, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 785459, "relative_activity": 1.004347, "balance": 2.326695, "dry_up": 1.227115, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018499, "annualized_volatility": 0.118176, "from_high_reference": -0.000592, "from_low_reference": 0.239362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.1775, "fair_value_reference": 5.665819, "structural_low": 5.557, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012028, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001553, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.059026, "worst_return": 0.001235, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.062459, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018936, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.062459, "worst_return": 0.062459, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"relative_strength": -2.599593, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.331221, "energy": 64.363094, "activity_lines": [ 6.572133, 6.548036, 6.413238, 6.278301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.498, "volume": 1166127, "typical_volume": 796077.35, "trend": 6.1527, "fair_value": 5.654452, "relative_strength": -4.116481, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.674079, "energy": 58.03661, "activity_lines": [ 6.5498, 6.543491, 6.437681, 6.301953 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.757, "volume": 785459, "typical_volume": 782059.4, "trend": 6.1775, "fair_value": 5.665819, "relative_strength": -3.087434, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.506426, "energy": 67.450365, "activity_lines": [ 6.612933, 6.584982, 6.483529, 6.34094 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }