{ "ticker": { "uuid": "748e988f-04ca-419f-8e25-aeb3d90d2e78", "symbol": "SI02", "name": "Ossiam Lux - Ossiam Shiller Barclays CAPE US Sector Value Trust", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.987, "architecture_energy": 90.26, "architecture_maturity": 18.717, "architecture_confidence": 63.441, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.89, "rotation_up": 82.76, "upward_expansion": 96.5, "deceleration": 42.49, "rotation_down": 9.33, "downward_expansion": 20.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1493.320019, 1477.741837, 1450.480011, 1436.678288 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1508.400024, "trend_reference": 1424.420007, "distance_from_trend": 0.058957, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1323.651283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139575, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.775003, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064803, "excess_performance": -0.109444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058957, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018325, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139575, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050819, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12775, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010119, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064803, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014911, "annualized_volatility": 0.091886, "from_high_reference": -0.002513, "from_low_reference": 0.118991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1424.420007, "fair_value_reference": 1323.651283, "structural_low": 1350.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.006252, "positive_rate": 0.564103, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.012304, "regime_survival": 0.74359, "best_return": 0.058973, "worst_return": -0.084329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.032536, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.002633, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.153679, "worst_return": -0.096096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.021263, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030769, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.182815, "worst_return": -0.112126, "sufficient": true 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1429.005717, 1422.189681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1488.400024, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 23.25, "trend": 1418.313338, "fair_value": 1318.762821, "relative_strength": -12.132657, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.925631, "energy": 91.26658, "activity_lines": [ 1481.253336, 1460.578191, 1436.004766, 1426.923445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1482.800049, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 23.25, "trend": 1421.686674, "fair_value": 1321.106412, "relative_strength": -12.049494, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.782812, "energy": 86.859873, "activity_lines": [ 1484.200016, 1467.483654, 1442.16858, 1431.083878 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1508.400024, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.75, "trend": 1424.420007, "fair_value": 1323.651283, "relative_strength": -12.775003, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.986663, "energy": 90.259774, "activity_lines": [ 1493.320019, 1477.741837, 1450.480011, 1436.678288 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }