{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7495b0f6-5ff6-45c4-b454-655a182078b5", "symbol": "000036", "name": "China Union Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.553, "architecture_energy": 58.859, "architecture_maturity": 32.903, "architecture_confidence": 82.879, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.1, "rotation_up": 14.56, "upward_expansion": 9.48, "deceleration": 52.85, "rotation_down": 70.6, "downward_expansion": 85.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.064, 4.221273, 4.63481, 4.831333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.22, "trend_reference": 5.18, "distance_from_trend": -0.185328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.111923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.937526, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.290756, "excess_performance": -0.298156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040385, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.468679, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169375, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239683, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.290756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.332063, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135285603, "relative_activity": 0.835637, "balance": 0.332063, "dry_up": 1.176602, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10463, "annualized_volatility": 0.380983, "from_high_reference": -0.459667, "from_low_reference": 0.175487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.18, "fair_value_reference": 4.111923, "structural_low": 3.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.008704, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012903, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.200692, "worst_return": -0.189415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044426, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.077524, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.573333, "worst_return": -0.159218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025417, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.111976, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.568106, "worst_return": -0.179837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.130675, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.017684, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.456338, "worst_return": -0.24661, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.209059, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157068, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012019, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", 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"relative_strength": -15.331086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.190048, "energy": 84.976272, "activity_lines": [ 4.264667, 4.582182, 4.902381, 5.090667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.94, "volume": 218197677, "typical_volume": 164405370.3, "trend": 5.389333, "fair_value": 4.112692, "relative_strength": -19.802424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.406927, "energy": 83.42025, "activity_lines": [ 4.114667, 4.416, 4.799381, 4.993828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.91, "volume": 126936150, "typical_volume": 162654250.0, "trend": 5.259333, "fair_value": 4.111667, "relative_strength": -19.045257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.882223, "energy": 79.561062, "activity_lines": [ 4.018667, 4.276545, 4.699619, 4.898387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.22, "volume": 135285603, "typical_volume": 161895250.35, "trend": 5.18, "fair_value": 4.111923, "relative_strength": -16.937526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.552975, "energy": 58.859228, "activity_lines": [ 4.064, 4.221273, 4.63481, 4.831333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }