{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74a00f6b-06ef-4ded-a6f0-8c546ba97b09", "symbol": "GAEL", "name": "Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.824, "architecture_energy": 35.182, "architecture_maturity": 19.069, "architecture_confidence": 75.653, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.88, "rotation_up": 48.38, "upward_expansion": 74.64, "deceleration": 62.04, "rotation_down": 25.77, "downward_expansion": 8.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 162.369999, 160.154363, 158.793047, 154.938021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 169.220001, "trend_reference": 149.698, "distance_from_trend": 0.130409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 138.855842, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218674, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 26.96037, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.321309, "excess_performance": 0.365018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098838, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218674, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006874, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.269604, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138431, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.321309, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.870917, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15946596, "relative_activity": 3.084428, "balance": 0.870917, "dry_up": 2.32844, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065872, "annualized_volatility": 0.340193, "from_high_reference": -0.080476, "from_low_reference": 0.672134 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 149.698, "fair_value_reference": 138.855842, "structural_low": 122.209999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.016781, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.006436, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.246093, "worst_return": -0.085413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004702, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.005451, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.95197, "worst_return": -0.115733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.383542, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.275675, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.551866, "worst_return": -0.117511, "sufficient": 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27.301022, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.623016, "energy": 29.789722, "activity_lines": [ 158.091334, 158.838728, 154.137381, 149.612796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 164.520004, "volume": 606758, "typical_volume": 3469634.4, "trend": 144.466333, "fair_value": 137.803215, "relative_strength": 29.990207, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.520439, "energy": 41.096527, "activity_lines": [ 160.476002, 159.903456, 155.57681, 151.012387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 154.289993, "volume": 4434523, "typical_volume": 3414101.3, "trend": 145.692, "fair_value": 137.9923, "relative_strength": 21.338948, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.851808, "energy": 29.288799, "activity_lines": [ 158.808666, 158.869091, 155.918238, 151.646172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 145.899994, "volume": 4979948, "typical_volume": 3443745.45, "trend": 146.427, "fair_value": 138.105975, "relative_strength": 13.504999, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.901791, "energy": 11.131192, "activity_lines": [ 154.449331, 156.335817, 155.426428, 151.659591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 151.639999, "volume": 11452286, "typical_volume": 3896383.6, "trend": 147.290333, "fair_value": 138.255649, "relative_strength": 19.849075, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.665071, "energy": 12.778042, "activity_lines": [ 152.798664, 155.219999, 155.457666, 151.995913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 172.110001, "volume": 15773614, "typical_volume": 4557388.0, "trend": 148.437, "fair_value": 138.544493, "relative_strength": 31.366219, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.898863, "energy": 26.810096, "activity_lines": [ 158.527332, 158.028726, 157.362761, 153.597182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 169.220001, "volume": 15946596, "typical_volume": 5170033.5, "trend": 149.698, "fair_value": 138.855842, "relative_strength": 26.96037, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.823747, "energy": 35.182041, "activity_lines": [ 162.369999, 160.154363, 158.793047, 154.938021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }