{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74a09943-2a00-43b6-a401-f11f18815218", "symbol": "WRDA", "name": "UBS Core MSCI World UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.566, "architecture_energy": 55.487, "architecture_maturity": 73.387, "architecture_confidence": 66.474, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.61, "rotation_up": 49.59, "upward_expansion": 79.41, "deceleration": 71.26, "rotation_down": 28.36, "downward_expansion": 8.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.564333, 33.470682, 33.11106, 32.512269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.3225, "trend_reference": 31.802833, "distance_from_trend": 0.079228, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.485971, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248728, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.015818, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12903, "excess_performance": 0.077794, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079228, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248728, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053123, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020158, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00887, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12903, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.731551, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 475504, "relative_activity": 0.700037, "balance": 2.731551, "dry_up": 0.856029, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019873, "annualized_volatility": 0.115096, "from_high_reference": -0.140616, "from_low_reference": 0.233513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.802833, "fair_value_reference": 27.485971, "structural_low": 28.705, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.010419, "positive_rate": 0.607143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": 0.002017, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.050937, "worst_return": -0.181442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020334, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018738, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.078274, "worst_return": -0.152084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046195, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.043606, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.1222, "worst_return": -0.17398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.976743, "energy": 58.469143, "activity_lines": [ 33.350667, 33.312864, 32.690214, 32.129527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.3075, "volume": 839294, "typical_volume": 667681.7, "trend": 31.588667, "fair_value": 27.391157, "relative_strength": 0.566582, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.721919, "energy": 50.435305, "activity_lines": [ 33.314333, 33.324182, 32.819143, 32.246935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.065, "volume": 411043, "typical_volume": 667818.75, "trend": 31.686167, "fair_value": 27.434183, "relative_strength": -1.376572, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.854129, "energy": 40.60511, "activity_lines": [ 33.223667, 33.2835, 32.912321, 32.342183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.3225, "volume": 475504, "typical_volume": 679255.4, "trend": 31.802833, "fair_value": 27.485971, "relative_strength": 2.015818, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.566028, "energy": 55.486533, "activity_lines": [ 33.564333, 33.470682, 33.11106, 32.512269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }