{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74a0f6ce-7489-41e2-ae68-78f764990594", "symbol": "300292", "name": "Wutong Holding Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.757, "architecture_energy": 59.598, "architecture_maturity": 17.415, "architecture_confidence": 66.608, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.04, "rotation_up": 16.66, "upward_expansion": 21.11, "deceleration": 43.42, "rotation_down": 67.7, "downward_expansion": 60.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.126667, 4.523636, 4.979286, 5.015634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.29, "trend_reference": 5.004, "distance_from_trend": -0.142686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.423846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030256, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.36787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091102, "excess_performance": -0.098501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020669, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030256, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.306097, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07858, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091102, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.375982, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 248572903, "relative_activity": 0.675659, "balance": 1.375982, "dry_up": 0.691399, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189887, "annualized_volatility": 0.651618, "from_high_reference": -0.415531, "from_low_reference": 0.191667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.004, "fair_value_reference": 4.423846, "structural_low": 3.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007854, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048026, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.070588, "worst_return": -0.07485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.052478, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.069331, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197059, "worst_return": 0.017241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.053566, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.057809, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101293, "worst_return": -0.076471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020921, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070994, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088679, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012931, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023861, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044248, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082627, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.281307, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108527, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 3.66, "volume": 81510098, "typical_volume": 219989256.45, "trend": 3.669333, "fair_value": 3.898974, "relative_strength": 6.512552, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.133996, "energy": 17.560146, 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"relative_strength": -20.361197, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.103758, "energy": 35.650425, "activity_lines": [ 4.666667, 5.159273, 5.28881, 5.19714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.87, "volume": 245559353, "typical_volume": 375292437.1, "trend": 5.024333, "fair_value": 4.417308, "relative_strength": -21.865903, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.586535, "energy": 55.981965, "activity_lines": [ 4.262667, 4.863636, 5.160476, 5.121161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.11, "volume": 254051260, "typical_volume": 374113455.6, "trend": 5.011333, "fair_value": 4.419744, "relative_strength": -15.194816, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.441709, "energy": 61.890428, "activity_lines": [ 4.108, 4.660364, 5.059333, 5.062172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.29, "volume": 248572903, "typical_volume": 367896837.1, "trend": 5.004, "fair_value": 4.423846, "relative_strength": -15.36787, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.756712, "energy": 59.597607, "activity_lines": [ 4.126667, 4.523636, 4.979286, 5.015634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }