{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74a80dea-3b7f-41c4-b532-fdd860423b11", "symbol": "FSZ", "name": "FIRST TRUST SWITZERLAND ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.931, "architecture_energy": 15.304, "architecture_maturity": 28.509, "architecture_confidence": 54.092, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.67, "rotation_up": 39.41, "upward_expansion": 42.34, "deceleration": 61.63, "rotation_down": 32.84, "downward_expansion": 14.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.94868, 81.89348, 81.533795, 81.378579 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 83.3384, "trend_reference": 81.475549, "distance_from_trend": 0.022864, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.178475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204687, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.731312, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007344, "excess_performance": -0.194798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022864, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.204687, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008864, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046235, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007344, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.629663, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 834, "relative_activity": 0.138045, "balance": 0.629663, "dry_up": 0.449226, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024804, "annualized_volatility": 0.159824, "from_high_reference": -0.029182, "from_low_reference": 0.118927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.475549, "fair_value_reference": 69.178475, "structural_low": 75.972059, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001414, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010082, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.089616, "worst_return": -0.051523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036172, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.020694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172442, "worst_return": -0.058118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045922, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.120817, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.151921, "worst_return": -0.23073, "sufficient": false }, { 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68.876155, "relative_strength": -8.232333, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.732051, "energy": 11.230562, "activity_lines": [ 81.48362, 81.535316, 81.19446, 81.231248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.6774, "volume": 3758, "typical_volume": 6667.25, "trend": 81.392872, "fair_value": 69.022851, "relative_strength": -6.292186, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.101552, "energy": 4.129507, "activity_lines": [ 81.441807, 81.572245, 81.291252, 81.253061 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.3384, "volume": 834, "typical_volume": 6041.5, "trend": 81.475549, "fair_value": 69.178475, "relative_strength": -8.731312, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.93142, "energy": 15.303587, "activity_lines": [ 81.94868, 81.89348, 81.533795, 81.378579 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }