{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74aabaad-ab61-4f20-83a2-1f3e7fdb90f2", "symbol": "CPAY", "name": "Corpay Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.266, "architecture_energy": 78.692, "architecture_maturity": 35.734, "architecture_confidence": 82.295, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.55, "rotation_up": 79.21, "upward_expansion": 95.27, "deceleration": 39.18, "rotation_down": 11.04, "downward_expansion": 17.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 379.34, 367.329636, 354.766333, 344.762688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 392.94, "trend_reference": 335.364667, "distance_from_trend": 0.17168, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 310.323333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.266228, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.434681, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109405, "excess_performance": -0.01622, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.17168, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061154, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.266228, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123791, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.094347, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12111, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109405, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.617267, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3515789, "relative_activity": 1.233888, "balance": 1.617267, "dry_up": 1.013596, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062267, "annualized_volatility": 0.372974, "from_high_reference": -0.032048, "from_low_reference": 0.554105 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 335.364667, "fair_value_reference": 310.323333, "structural_low": 281.16, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.026944, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.006682, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.150711, "worst_return": -0.106858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008318, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.011968, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.16423, "worst_return": -0.116656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.102246, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.072965, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128511, "worst_return": -0.036615, "sufficient": false }, { 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47.236848, "energy": 27.158191, "activity_lines": [ 345.848667, 346.129455, 334.50619, 330.54529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 353.64, "volume": 2071561, "typical_volume": 3045073.7, "trend": 326.72, "fair_value": 307.114744, "relative_strength": 0.678627, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.557814, "energy": 25.053009, "activity_lines": [ 348.143333, 348.192727, 337.001619, 332.362817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 365.79, "volume": 2353013, "typical_volume": 2959502.95, "trend": 328.586, "fair_value": 307.841346, "relative_strength": 5.958573, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.32103, "energy": 36.424018, "activity_lines": [ 354.075333, 351.621091, 340.649714, 334.883462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 370.58, "volume": 2147636, "typical_volume": 2911233.5, "trend": 330.599333, "fair_value": 308.632372, "relative_strength": 8.120518, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.780896, "energy": 57.192098, "activity_lines": [ 360.958667, 355.524, 344.560238, 337.592753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 382.11, "volume": 3535951, "typical_volume": 2880753.0, "trend": 333.316667, "fair_value": 309.506667, "relative_strength": 10.289551, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.305446, "energy": 68.381386, "activity_lines": [ 369.998667, 360.753273, 349.301333, 340.916022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 392.94, "volume": 3515789, "typical_volume": 2849358.2, "trend": 335.364667, "fair_value": 310.323333, "relative_strength": 9.434681, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.266088, "energy": 78.692134, "activity_lines": [ 379.34, 367.329636, 354.766333, 344.762688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }