{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74b93f8f-680a-4e65-a369-60167a70f3db", "symbol": "A1EG34", "name": "Aegon Ltd.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.771, "architecture_energy": 86.332, "architecture_maturity": 28.318, "architecture_confidence": 80.482, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 79.21, "upward_expansion": 97.8, "deceleration": 40.53, "rotation_down": 14.11, "downward_expansion": 19.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.436667, 46.396458, 44.432402, 42.782329 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 48.599998, "trend_reference": 41.222161, "distance_from_trend": 0.178977, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.423586, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.411823, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.75197, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.188555, "excess_performance": 0.245603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.178977, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033526, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.411823, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178003, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.12752, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.274647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.188555, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.329214, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 171, "relative_activity": 0.661893, "balance": 0.329214, "dry_up": 0.545771, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041186, "annualized_volatility": 0.385944, "from_high_reference": -0.01699, "from_low_reference": 0.437444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.222161, "fair_value_reference": 34.423586, "structural_low": 33.810001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.000371, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": 0.00321, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.130309, "worst_return": -0.181992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.045606, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.017215, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.191489, "worst_return": -0.134118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.092851, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019316, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.263368, "worst_return": -0.079374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 40.159828, "fair_value": 33.213633, "relative_strength": 14.266354, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 70.931958, "energy": 86.063818, "activity_lines": [ 44.0517, 42.294086, 40.280348, 40.074024 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 43.84, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 135.3, "trend": 40.281161, "fair_value": 33.363571, "relative_strength": 2.97544, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.586655, "energy": 81.370857, "activity_lines": [ 44.353519, 42.791635, 40.704468, 40.311455 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 43.200001, "volume": 2014, "typical_volume": 235.4, "trend": 40.305494, "fair_value": 33.504027, "relative_strength": -1.046709, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.004072, "energy": 78.419574, "activity_lines": [ 44.220288, 43.076367, 41.051064, 40.499767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 45.220001, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 234.9, "trend": 40.396161, "fair_value": 33.653468, "relative_strength": 3.118816, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.941633, "energy": 80.622865, "activity_lines": [ 44.700346, 43.663312, 41.579041, 40.816832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 45.0, "volume": 92, "typical_volume": 238.75, "trend": 40.567828, "fair_value": 33.79895, "relative_strength": 0.727836, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.992048, "energy": 56.766328, "activity_lines": [ 44.837334, 44.090829, 42.057589, 41.113854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.650002, "volume": 36, "typical_volume": 239.4, "trend": 40.689495, "fair_value": 33.949166, "relative_strength": 4.831351, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.35466, "energy": 57.874389, "activity_lines": [ 44.943334, 44.535919, 42.566424, 41.441736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.549999, "volume": 243, "typical_volume": 250.3, "trend": 40.817161, "fair_value": 34.103338, "relative_strength": 6.919349, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.391286, "energy": 69.64981, "activity_lines": [ 45.599334, 45.043506, 43.126258, 41.819833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.150002, "volume": 114, "typical_volume": 251.5, "trend": 41.014161, "fair_value": 34.26352, "relative_strength": 8.231931, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.633563, "energy": 81.767716, "activity_lines": [ 46.608001, 45.732261, 43.792044, 42.29292 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.599998, "volume": 171, "typical_volume": 258.35, "trend": 41.222161, "fair_value": 34.423586, "relative_strength": 12.75197, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.770673, "energy": 86.331914, "activity_lines": [ 47.436667, 46.396458, 44.432402, 42.782329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }