{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74ba623a-8096-4c7c-bb7e-2f2e31f85332", "symbol": "ENR", "name": "Encounter Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.881, "architecture_energy": 66.674, "architecture_maturity": 63.086, "architecture_confidence": 90.904, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.24, "rotation_up": 12.35, "upward_expansion": 14.38, "deceleration": 38.05, "rotation_down": 70.34, "downward_expansion": 90.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.229667, 0.242455, 0.256548, 0.269075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.225, "trend_reference": 0.2955, "distance_from_trend": -0.238579, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.336154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.330664, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.685326, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.391892, "excess_performance": -0.455598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238579, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151675, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.330664, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242183, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376853, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293088, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.391892, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.132317, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4516624, "relative_activity": 2.906128, "balance": 0.132317, "dry_up": 1.354039, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15812, "annualized_volatility": 0.754369, "from_high_reference": -0.637097, "from_low_reference": 0.046512 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2955, "fair_value_reference": 0.336154, "structural_low": 0.215, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.006115, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.733333, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.165344, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.164818, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 2.020408, "worst_return": -0.264706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.516667, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.47547, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.551724, "worst_return": -0.308824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.315068, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.279412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23913, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.68243, "energy": 36.093431, "activity_lines": [ 0.257333, 0.260455, 0.269048, 0.284634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.23, "volume": 974824, "typical_volume": 1578501.4, "trend": 0.307333, "fair_value": 0.339391, "relative_strength": -33.329476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.595053, "energy": 42.585604, "activity_lines": [ 0.246667, 0.254273, 0.264714, 0.279323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.225, "volume": 1824371, "typical_volume": 1417569.5, "trend": 0.3015, "fair_value": 0.337853, "relative_strength": -36.109935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.085103, "energy": 65.584238, "activity_lines": [ 0.237, 0.248182, 0.260476, 0.274011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.225, "volume": 4516624, "typical_volume": 1554172.4, "trend": 0.2955, "fair_value": 0.336154, "relative_strength": -37.685326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.880631, "energy": 66.674418, "activity_lines": [ 0.229667, 0.242455, 0.256548, 0.269075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }