{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74c336e7-88ef-4398-bc02-c100cdd10f13", "symbol": "VRIG", "name": "INVESCO VARIABLE RATE INVESTMENT GRADE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.007, "architecture_energy": 93.728, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.059, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.71, "rotation_up": 85.32, "upward_expansion": 99.9, "deceleration": 39.02, "rotation_down": 10.42, "downward_expansion": 21.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.065251, 25.034633, 24.99625, 24.959251 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 25.09, "trend_reference": 24.902991, "distance_from_trend": 0.007509, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.470567, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068998, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.317114, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.012449, "excess_performance": -0.175005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007509, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006243, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068998, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006664, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041612, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012449, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 20.653813, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2957665, "relative_activity": 1.198495, "balance": 20.653813, "dry_up": 1.084652, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001433, "annualized_volatility": 0.007644, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.038663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.902991, "fair_value_reference": 23.470567, "structural_low": 24.781502, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 54, "median_return": 0.004122, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.016292, "regime_survival": 0.907407, "best_return": 0.009392, "worst_return": -0.005519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.01327, "positive_rate": 0.944444, "directional_follow_through": 0.944444, "median_excess_return": -0.056364, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.021764, "worst_return": -0.004124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.027004, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.068638, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.040166, "worst_return": -0.008232, 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"relative_strength": -8.92922, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.848521, "energy": 64.166012, "activity_lines": [ 25.001882, 24.99175, 24.957532, 24.920979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.045, "volume": 2212679, "typical_volume": 2411477.8, "trend": 24.873755, "fair_value": 23.423169, "relative_strength": -7.130973, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.365016, "energy": 83.360249, "activity_lines": [ 25.020987, 25.003177, 24.968957, 24.932942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.08, "volume": 2478085, "typical_volume": 2418217.55, "trend": 24.888452, "fair_value": 23.446946, "relative_strength": -7.179944, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.905917, "energy": 92.549704, "activity_lines": [ 25.045182, 25.019146, 24.982728, 24.946248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.09, "volume": 2957665, "typical_volume": 2467815.25, "trend": 24.902991, "fair_value": 23.470567, "relative_strength": -11.317114, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.007368, "energy": 93.727803, "activity_lines": [ 25.065251, 25.034633, 24.99625, 24.959251 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }