{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74c3b0b3-31a1-436d-8fcf-03cb16f342f9", "symbol": "UT8", "name": "Uber Technologies, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.923, "architecture_energy": 14.797, "architecture_maturity": 23.713, "architecture_confidence": 68.819, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.99, "rotation_up": 19.89, "upward_expansion": 13.6, "deceleration": 54.77, "rotation_down": 46.35, "downward_expansion": 65.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.77, 63.150727, 63.024809, 63.082172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 64.720001, "trend_reference": 63.652333, "distance_from_trend": 0.016773, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 65.790064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.209541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031888, "excess_performance": -0.032752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016773, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016265, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026263, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012287, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031888, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.547544, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91390, "relative_activity": 2.773731, "balance": 0.547544, "dry_up": 2.166736, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053318, "annualized_volatility": 0.28767, "from_high_reference": -0.252483, "from_low_reference": 0.126153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.652333, "fair_value_reference": 65.790064, "structural_low": 57.470001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.029572, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.019462, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.171628, "worst_return": -0.147785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004107, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.072007, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.116313, "worst_return": -0.20606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.119671, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.197477, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.56528, "worst_return": -0.433175, "sufficient": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06964, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025807, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101893, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.224411, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 61.380001, "volume": 36949, "typical_volume": 26101.35, "trend": 64.297333, "fair_value": 65.511987, "relative_strength": -15.574647, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.309597, "energy": 14.041015, "activity_lines": [ 63.492666, 63.178545, 63.08119, 63.274581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.54, "volume": 108994, "typical_volume": 30368.1, "trend": 63.945, "fair_value": 65.631859, "relative_strength": -18.001864, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.894118, "energy": 28.149197, "activity_lines": [ 62.258, 62.760545, 62.845095, 63.032172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.720001, "volume": 91390, "typical_volume": 32948.4, "trend": 63.652333, "fair_value": 65.790064, "relative_strength": -14.209541, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.923245, "energy": 14.796987, "activity_lines": [ 62.77, 63.150727, 63.024809, 63.082172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }