{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74c8b774-751a-4970-aaf1-73edbefbd831", "symbol": "IDE", "name": "Voya Infrastructure Industrials and Materials Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.835, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.864, "architecture_energy": 22.475, "architecture_maturity": 38.054, "architecture_confidence": 69.495, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.0, "rotation_up": 17.23, "upward_expansion": 21.93, "deceleration": 62.59, "rotation_down": 53.95, "downward_expansion": 33.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.173846, 13.336755, 13.417248, 13.314659 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.08, "trend_reference": 13.200642, "distance_from_trend": -0.009139, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.943297, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.315459, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.297959, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002113, "excess_performance": -0.127738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009139, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052757, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.315459, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116621, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06298, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087033, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002113, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687404, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 289601, "relative_activity": 1.424201, "balance": 0.687404, "dry_up": 0.980547, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032754, "annualized_volatility": 0.183777, "from_high_reference": -0.062638, "from_low_reference": 0.214778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.200642, "fair_value_reference": 9.943297, "structural_low": 11.879826, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.012588, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012589, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.105956, "worst_return": -0.059707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.061604, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.011208, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.121968, "worst_return": -0.094077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.115563, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.038259, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.180467, "worst_return": -0.154152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.209913, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.027427, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224333, "worst_return": -0.170011, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019258, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005522, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029557, "active": false 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13.288566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.367644, "volume": 125665, "typical_volume": 214902.2, "trend": 13.075303, "fair_value": 9.833213, "relative_strength": -0.422731, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.607737, "energy": 17.577514, "activity_lines": [ 13.501083, 13.574286, 13.442777, 13.311299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.337872, "volume": 125718, "typical_volume": 204597.0, "trend": 13.126685, "fair_value": 9.870282, "relative_strength": -0.140678, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.469642, "energy": 16.402186, "activity_lines": [ 13.43219, 13.524803, 13.455227, 13.328239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.000456, "volume": 256565, "typical_volume": 199119.1, "trend": 13.164265, "fair_value": 9.906761, "relative_strength": -3.699191, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.196964, "energy": 13.087496, "activity_lines": [ 13.273697, 13.418431, 13.43386, 13.320095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.08, "volume": 289601, "typical_volume": 203342.8, "trend": 13.200642, "fair_value": 9.943297, "relative_strength": -6.297959, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.864422, "energy": 22.474781, "activity_lines": [ 13.173846, 13.336755, 13.417248, 13.314659 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }