{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74d6c4b0-bb1c-4fc9-aa34-78d76dfb111b", "symbol": "VEGB", "name": "VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF A USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.449, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.264, "architecture_energy": 19.517, "architecture_maturity": 41.335, "architecture_confidence": 73.274, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.73, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 61.28, "deceleration": 87.87, "rotation_down": 25.24, "downward_expansion": 13.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.037333, 17.093546, 16.942072, 16.822402 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.145, "trend_reference": 16.701967, "distance_from_trend": 0.026526, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.628192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03108, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.089983, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024194, "excess_performance": -0.027042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026526, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013237, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03108, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025794, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02862, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024194, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.418397, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 500, "relative_activity": 0.559785, "balance": 0.418397, "dry_up": 0.695533, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02775, "annualized_volatility": 0.112368, "from_high_reference": -0.077035, "from_low_reference": 0.09371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.701967, "fair_value_reference": 16.628192, "structural_low": 15.676, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024076, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.005871, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.035734, "worst_return": -0.041454, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.071323, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007201, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096969, "worst_return": -0.043101, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.058205, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127185, "worst_return": -0.010775, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"close": 17.233999, "volume": 1128, "typical_volume": 1155.95, "trend": 16.599034, "fair_value": 16.573462, "relative_strength": -3.695578, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.842165, "energy": 69.738054, "activity_lines": [ 17.256667, 17.063818, 16.816181, 16.722559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.153, "volume": 366, "typical_volume": 859.3, "trend": 16.6209, "fair_value": 16.587295, "relative_strength": -4.669492, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.703941, "energy": 64.001955, "activity_lines": [ 17.243933, 17.105655, 16.861291, 16.758299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.844999, "volume": 371, "typical_volume": 858.6, "trend": 16.6436, "fair_value": 16.598654, "relative_strength": -7.142159, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.621911, "energy": 37.113503, "activity_lines": [ 17.122466, 17.080473, 16.8768, 16.772757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.940001, "volume": 1248, "typical_volume": 905.8, "trend": 16.6719, "fair_value": 16.61093, "relative_strength": -7.336266, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.31375, "energy": 21.459445, "activity_lines": [ 17.0344, 17.070546, 16.900586, 16.79188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.145, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 893.2, "trend": 16.701967, "fair_value": 16.628192, "relative_strength": -6.089983, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.264311, "energy": 19.516585, "activity_lines": [ 17.037333, 17.093546, 16.942072, 16.822402 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }