{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74d749c3-0860-4a86-a9e8-0cfd6261aeda", "symbol": "3349", "name": "Dexin Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.782, "architecture_energy": 12.861, "architecture_maturity": 27.404, "architecture_confidence": 52.493, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.65, "rotation_up": 41.01, "upward_expansion": 33.08, "deceleration": 40.84, "rotation_down": 16.09, "downward_expansion": 45.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.853333, 22.378182, 21.671667, 22.753871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.0, "trend_reference": 24.533333, "distance_from_trend": -0.0625, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.970645, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046851, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.407285, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.204152, "excess_performance": -0.645524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068178, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168817, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112532, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204152, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.170975, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 958000, "relative_activity": 1.117965, "balance": 1.170975, "dry_up": 0.78547, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102007, "annualized_volatility": 0.529732, "from_high_reference": -0.295559, "from_low_reference": 0.341108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.533333, "fair_value_reference": 21.970645, "structural_low": 17.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.035716, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.028763, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.375723, "worst_return": -0.026128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.316176, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.245798, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.347826, "worst_return": 0.031923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.390829, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.239171, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.566396, "worst_return": 0.301471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.246612, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.052715, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.926471, "worst_return": -0.217334, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.288066, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112605, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058201, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092965, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063953, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086721, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025907, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.459596, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191379, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-14", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 17.049999, "volume": 81000, "typical_volume": 257250.0, "trend": 15.23, "fair_value": 17.319627, "relative_strength": 6.468578, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.122793, "energy": 28.598667, "activity_lines": [ 22.03, 20.543636, 21.69, 23.360538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.299999, "volume": 378000, "typical_volume": 939870.1, "trend": 25.346667, "fair_value": 21.884107, "relative_strength": -28.372062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.876957, "energy": 28.975761, "activity_lines": [ 22.79, 21.195454, 21.688333, 23.21215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.1, "volume": 685025, "typical_volume": 863401.8, "trend": 25.058333, "fair_value": 21.903017, "relative_strength": -30.93378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.670676, "energy": 23.889654, "activity_lines": [ 22.813333, 21.550909, 21.603571, 23.002688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.0, "volume": 671295, "typical_volume": 847263.85, "trend": 24.798333, "fair_value": 21.934748, "relative_strength": -29.441977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.504713, "energy": 15.104984, "activity_lines": [ 22.866666, 22.011818, 21.629286, 22.869892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 23.0, "volume": 958000, "typical_volume": 856913.85, "trend": 24.533333, "fair_value": 21.970645, "relative_strength": -31.407285, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.781725, "energy": 12.860935, "activity_lines": [ 22.853333, 22.378182, 21.671667, 22.753871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }