{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "74ece42c-ae67-4c0c-b9f7-886a00d453cf",
    "symbol": "XXSC",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe Small Cap UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 74.409,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.231,
    "architecture_energy": 77.04,
    "architecture_maturity": 35.042,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.483,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 13.92,
        "rotation_up": 71.72,
        "upward_expansion": 91.93,
        "deceleration": 42.73,
        "rotation_down": 15.95,
        "downward_expansion": 16.27
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        74.279332,
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        72.999714,
        72.106903
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 75.769997,
    "trend_reference": 71.277333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.063031,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 61.527693,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231478,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.925518,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.06899,
    "excess_performance": -0.101902,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063031,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03289,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.231478,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.026267,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.059255,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003162,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06899,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.61657,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 12882,
      "relative_activity": 0.279998,
      "balance": 3.61657,
      "dry_up": 0.843848,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.020193,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.157411,
      "from_high_reference": -0.00237,
      "from_low_reference": 0.246832
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 71.277333,
      "fair_value_reference": 61.527693,
      "structural_low": 60.77,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 29,
        "median_return": 0.002355,
        "positive_rate": 0.517241,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.517241,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006173,
        "regime_survival": 0.724138,
        "best_return": 0.064986,
        "worst_return": -0.097432,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.008557,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.636364,
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        "regime_survival": 0.363636,
        "best_return": 0.051342,
        "worst_return": -0.081136,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.057869,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.04889,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.025347,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.062524,
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        "worst_return": -0.1641,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "typical_volume": 63642.8,
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        "fair_value": 59.665064,
        "relative_strength": -5.055334,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 40.580522,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "fair_value": 59.790385,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 66645.65,
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        "relative_strength": -6.175428,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 68148.05,
        "trend": 68.766667,
        "fair_value": 60.046923,
        "relative_strength": -3.998784,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.835614,
        "energy": 55.075287,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 42354,
        "typical_volume": 69607.55,
        "trend": 69.007667,
        "fair_value": 60.181282,
        "relative_strength": -4.517556,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 67.636187,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 68947.95,
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        "fair_value": 60.308141,
        "relative_strength": -5.638008,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 68430.45,
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        "relative_strength": -7.598304,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -8.166337,
        "stage": 3,
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        "direction": 44.477854,
        "energy": 30.062056,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 65596.2,
        "trend": 70.266,
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        "relative_strength": -7.956064,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 65572.4,
        "trend": 70.484334,
        "fair_value": 60.98109,
        "relative_strength": -8.982145,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 52.149334,
        "energy": 33.052812,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 73.169998,
        "volume": 64642,
        "typical_volume": 59742.0,
        "trend": 70.693,
        "fair_value": 61.111218,
        "relative_strength": -6.635561,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.371774,
        "energy": 38.149285,
        "activity_lines": [
          72.919334,
          72.853273,
          72.061905,
          71.423806
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 73.550003,
        "volume": 62354,
        "typical_volume": 61095.6,
        "trend": 70.899667,
        "fair_value": 61.240385,
        "relative_strength": -5.756622,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.774383,
        "energy": 52.545119,
        "activity_lines": [
          73.177335,
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          72.316191,
          71.608129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 73.949997,
        "volume": 15415,
        "typical_volume": 57199.95,
        "trend": 71.089333,
        "fair_value": 61.376731,
        "relative_strength": -5.677813,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.790553,
        "energy": 51.752952,
        "activity_lines": [
          73.497333,
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          72.587286,
          71.804925
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 75.769997,
        "volume": 12882,
        "typical_volume": 46007.4,
        "trend": 71.277333,
        "fair_value": 61.527693,
        "relative_strength": -5.925518,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.230714,
        "energy": 77.040192,
        "activity_lines": [
          74.279332,
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          72.106903
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}