{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74f337f9-4163-4205-9806-158d0450c4c6", "symbol": "XSMI", "name": "Xtrackers Switzerland UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.497, "architecture_energy": 70.009, "architecture_maturity": 35.618, "architecture_confidence": 82.324, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 68.34, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 57.02, "rotation_down": 21.78, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.894669, 149.726181, 146.025332, 143.368816 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 152.660004, "trend_reference": 140.711999, "distance_from_trend": 0.084911, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 123.988323, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231245, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.501263, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.101602, "excess_performance": 0.018719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084911, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036883, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098055, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015013, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004964, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101602, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.911508, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19565, "relative_activity": 0.658664, "balance": 4.911508, "dry_up": 0.879375, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019803, "annualized_volatility": 0.157624, "from_high_reference": -0.005213, "from_low_reference": 0.257761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 140.711999, "fair_value_reference": 123.988323, "structural_low": 124.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.004508, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": 0.001418, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.047941, "worst_return": -0.096871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007382, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.006403, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.079297, "worst_return": -0.044289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.029063, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015534, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.088261, "worst_return": -0.122115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 35920.05, "trend": 139.774665, "fair_value": 123.473978, "relative_strength": 1.241307, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.833717, "energy": 86.601229, "activity_lines": [ 149.863998, 147.876724, 144.006474, 141.882837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.380005, "volume": 30278, "typical_volume": 33428.95, "trend": 140.232665, "fair_value": 123.723843, "relative_strength": 1.416781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.578075, "energy": 71.52901, "activity_lines": [ 150.057334, 148.676726, 144.949903, 142.567052 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 152.660004, "volume": 19565, "typical_volume": 29704.05, "trend": 140.711999, "fair_value": 123.988323, "relative_strength": 1.501263, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.496804, "energy": 70.008691, "activity_lines": [ 150.894669, 149.726181, 146.025332, 143.368816 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }