{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74f36532-4963-4089-a080-9398e9b8fd64", "symbol": "300921", "name": "NOVA Technology Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.585, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.781, "architecture_energy": 78.867, "architecture_maturity": 16.337, "architecture_confidence": 81.003, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.28, "rotation_up": 8.24, "upward_expansion": 18.15, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 78.7, "downward_expansion": 93.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.328, 15.858364, 17.263496, 17.778259 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.52, "trend_reference": 18.349718, "distance_from_trend": -0.15421, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.021514, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10687, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.90115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207386, "excess_performance": -0.214785, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15421, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004857, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10687, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.375824, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149011, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103766, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207386, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.795289, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57157089, "relative_activity": 1.102059, "balance": 0.795289, "dry_up": 0.940097, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147877, "annualized_volatility": 0.622494, "from_high_reference": -0.367057, "from_low_reference": 0.343723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.349718, "fair_value_reference": 14.021514, "structural_low": 11.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.008082, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.037977, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.227133, "worst_return": -0.308574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013441, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045356, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.206839, "worst_return": -0.225806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.108868, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.104479, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.409887, "worst_return": -0.196966, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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18.453888, "fair_value": 14.000085, "relative_strength": -27.123039, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.454958, "energy": 81.281182, "activity_lines": [ 15.066, 16.92544, 17.926663, 18.262805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.8, "volume": 41813978, "typical_volume": 53241448.3, "trend": 18.376572, "fair_value": 14.003299, "relative_strength": -20.849666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.27846, "energy": 82.533765, "activity_lines": [ 14.176, 16.174909, 17.501831, 17.962554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.52, "volume": 57157089, "typical_volume": 51863894.25, "trend": 18.349718, "fair_value": 14.021514, "relative_strength": -14.90115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.780968, "energy": 78.866544, "activity_lines": [ 14.328, 15.858364, 17.263496, 17.778259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }