{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74f84a76-c8ae-49ab-a36e-2e25a061f4ae", "symbol": "CIM", "name": "Chimera Investment Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.102, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.154, "architecture_energy": 38.887, "architecture_maturity": 31.194, "architecture_confidence": 87.629, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.31, "rotation_up": 21.34, "upward_expansion": 4.85, "deceleration": 59.85, "rotation_down": 51.69, "downward_expansion": 78.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.803955, 11.82617, 12.257647, 12.438479 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.97, "trend_reference": 12.59788, "distance_from_trend": -0.04984, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.975185, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000433, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.495399, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001551, "excess_performance": -0.124074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04984, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002309, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000433, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10294, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144954, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082518, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001551, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.459464, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5342512, "relative_activity": 1.549883, "balance": 0.459464, "dry_up": 1.068684, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059662, "annualized_volatility": 0.348722, "from_high_reference": -0.128186, "from_low_reference": 0.107168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.59788, "fair_value_reference": 11.975185, "structural_low": 10.811369, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.021196, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.001785, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.301818, "worst_return": -0.33935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043276, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.016958, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.230417, "worst_return": -0.171816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.043182, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.069565, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186677, "worst_return": -0.293092, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005405, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041893, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099354, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069956, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.143532, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 3518841.75, "trend": 12.673299, "fair_value": 12.019743, "relative_strength": -16.976961, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.199312, "energy": 71.242628, "activity_lines": [ 11.836447, 12.252901, 12.614344, 12.679839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.35722, "volume": 3206579, "typical_volume": 3482448.75, "trend": 12.648445, "fair_value": 12.006991, "relative_strength": -16.720502, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.444909, "energy": 85.784957, "activity_lines": [ 11.587274, 12.041628, 12.48067, 12.594931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.005058, "volume": 2810331, "typical_volume": 3448245.0, "trend": 12.612789, "fair_value": 11.986722, "relative_strength": -18.358639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.374149, "energy": 89.650192, "activity_lines": [ 11.325168, 11.799738, 12.321941, 12.488906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.48, "volume": 3375779, "typical_volume": 3456593.0, "trend": 12.618822, "fair_value": 11.981167, "relative_strength": -8.108114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.557091, "energy": 56.169239, "activity_lines": [ 11.677482, 11.85616, 12.313706, 12.480339 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.97, "volume": 5342512, "typical_volume": 3447043.05, "trend": 12.59788, "fair_value": 11.975185, "relative_strength": -14.495399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.153745, "energy": 38.887099, "activity_lines": [ 11.803955, 11.82617, 12.257647, 12.438479 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }