{ "ticker": { "uuid": "74ff1f08-7a55-4ab2-960c-a9ea0b2fd0a8", "symbol": "TNG", "name": "Transgene SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.401, "architecture_energy": 73.241, "architecture_maturity": 22.456, "architecture_confidence": 82.561, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.59, "rotation_up": 11.3, "upward_expansion": 15.28, "deceleration": 39.08, "rotation_down": 72.77, "downward_expansion": 88.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.720533, 0.732745, 0.755271, 0.766862 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.709, "trend_reference": 0.7928, "distance_from_trend": -0.105701, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.022103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.306332, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.048569, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.139563, "excess_performance": -0.192874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105701, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111244, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.306332, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100734, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139563, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.784213, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162374, "relative_activity": 0.987947, "balance": 0.784213, "dry_up": 1.009509, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044375, "annualized_volatility": 0.273978, "from_high_reference": -0.527333, "from_low_reference": 0.005674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.7928, "fair_value_reference": 1.022103, "structural_low": 0.705, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.02849, "positive_rate": 0.358974, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.052054, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.708904, "worst_return": -0.191841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.034066, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037653, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.342062, "worst_return": -0.38, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.090271, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.223269, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.202346, "worst_return": -0.344231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.694325, "energy": 65.878909, "activity_lines": [ 0.7514, 0.769618, 0.774681, 0.790622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.737, "volume": 137526, "typical_volume": 201574.05, "trend": 0.818, "fair_value": 1.041577, "relative_strength": -24.452294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.726003, "energy": 64.64206, "activity_lines": [ 0.746133, 0.761109, 0.770476, 0.784994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.724, "volume": 138210, "typical_volume": 179797.45, "trend": 0.809467, "fair_value": 1.034795, "relative_strength": -25.813079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.719814, "energy": 55.449455, "activity_lines": [ 0.738667, 0.751018, 0.765762, 0.778929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.715, "volume": 225561, "typical_volume": 171200.5, "trend": 0.801567, "fair_value": 1.028365, "relative_strength": -27.312514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.573941, "energy": 58.364543, "activity_lines": [ 0.730067, 0.741382, 0.760648, 0.772834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.709, "volume": 162374, "typical_volume": 164354.9, "trend": 0.7928, "fair_value": 1.022103, "relative_strength": -29.048569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.400602, "energy": 73.240925, "activity_lines": [ 0.720533, 0.732745, 0.755271, 0.766862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }