{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7508165b-adb8-48a4-ab86-cc91a9707aea", "symbol": "VSTIND", "name": "VST Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.609, "architecture_energy": 75.178, "architecture_maturity": 10.587, "architecture_confidence": 85.451, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.06, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 34.17, "deceleration": 46.18, "rotation_down": 75.95, "downward_expansion": 59.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 225.973336, 234.897192, 242.662665, 241.212008 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 219.770004, "trend_reference": 239.490046, "distance_from_trend": -0.082342, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 291.652263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.246466, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.716621, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07399, "excess_performance": -0.030281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082342, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017376, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.246466, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142166, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16917, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07399, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.108118, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1107410, "relative_activity": 0.527122, "balance": 0.108118, "dry_up": 0.749239, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041881, "annualized_volatility": 0.290638, "from_high_reference": -0.233663, "from_low_reference": 0.09885 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 239.490046, "fair_value_reference": 291.652263, "structural_low": 200.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01372, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.026795, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.037821, "worst_return": -0.079801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044357, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013649, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137694, "worst_return": -0.088478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004273, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.039885, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245881, "worst_return": -0.193824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.706494, "energy": 12.731714, "activity_lines": [ 244.989527, 247.646177, 248.137446, 244.593285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 230.050003, "volume": 1073699, "typical_volume": 2043380.9, "trend": 241.282713, "fair_value": 292.66115, "relative_strength": -4.290961, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.767406, "energy": 46.651205, "activity_lines": [ 239.320339, 243.949242, 246.945011, 243.81268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 221.5, "volume": 2300311, "typical_volume": 2106843.9, "trend": 240.297713, "fair_value": 292.132285, "relative_strength": -9.765256, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.102953, "energy": 68.59304, "activity_lines": [ 232.009432, 239.245944, 244.900814, 242.536376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 219.770004, "volume": 1107410, "typical_volume": 2100860.65, "trend": 239.490046, "fair_value": 291.652263, "relative_strength": -10.716621, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.608963, "energy": 75.177929, "activity_lines": [ 225.973336, 234.897192, 242.662665, 241.212008 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }