{ "ticker": { "uuid": "751555aa-5f6b-4c9b-acd6-16f6097a3c99", "symbol": "600162", "name": "Shenzhen HeungKong Holding Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.354, "architecture_energy": 50.47, "architecture_maturity": 34.433, "architecture_confidence": 76.409, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.1, "rotation_up": 59.63, "upward_expansion": 76.81, "deceleration": 66.66, "rotation_down": 17.94, "downward_expansion": 5.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.19868, 3.083131, 2.81488, 2.572661 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.72, "trend_reference": 2.299842, "distance_from_trend": 0.617502, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.822684, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.040946, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 72.150883, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.0, "excess_performance": 1.043204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.617502, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196381, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.040946, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.927541, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.721509, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.778149, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.241887, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1205598185, "relative_activity": 2.45718, "balance": 2.241887, "dry_up": 2.198205, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158004, "annualized_volatility": 0.966448, "from_high_reference": -0.015873, "from_low_reference": 1.254545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.299842, "fair_value_reference": 1.822684, "structural_low": 1.67, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.02935, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03304, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.045714, "worst_return": -0.12, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032258, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.018113, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.101064, "worst_return": -0.15534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030817, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148936, "worst_return": -0.16, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.00945, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.134923, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092785, "worst_return": -0.228384, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116565, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045715, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050352, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.52551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05314, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048649, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005376, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 2.818053, 2.918389, 2.572965, 2.377879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.715143, "volume": 1238342673, "typical_volume": 403720892.3, "trend": 2.192842, "fair_value": 1.801468, "relative_strength": 33.626594, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.940475, "energy": 26.332956, "activity_lines": [ 2.743759, 2.903686, 2.611645, 2.413329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.18, "volume": 900602606, "typical_volume": 440629079.65, "trend": 2.237509, "fair_value": 1.810636, "relative_strength": 53.862777, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.919697, "energy": 29.620371, "activity_lines": [ 2.882074, 2.957408, 2.69062, 2.477017 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.72, "volume": 1205598185, "typical_volume": 490642972.25, "trend": 2.299842, "fair_value": 1.822684, "relative_strength": 72.150883, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.354235, "energy": 50.469811, "activity_lines": [ 3.19868, 3.083131, 2.81488, 2.572661 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }