{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75183272-4bbb-4a75-8cb2-d729134412db", "symbol": "XMEM", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.903, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.221, "architecture_energy": 25.834, "architecture_maturity": 65.228, "architecture_confidence": 80.639, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.87, "rotation_up": 18.37, "upward_expansion": 53.1, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 35.78, "downward_expansion": 19.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.031332, 72.183818, 71.887286, 70.166086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 71.519997, "trend_reference": 67.93, "distance_from_trend": 0.052848, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.275513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368136, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.331885, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131109, "excess_performance": -0.039783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052848, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078334, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.368136, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081284, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126785, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131109, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.050882, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1647, "relative_activity": 0.447299, "balance": 1.050882, "dry_up": 0.925966, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037504, "annualized_volatility": 0.21991, "from_high_reference": -0.074175, "from_low_reference": 0.364885 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.93, "fair_value_reference": 52.275513, "structural_low": 59.419998, "invalidation": "A 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"blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101586, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064704, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099768, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017058, "active": false }, { 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66.762333, "fair_value": 51.744103, "relative_strength": 0.633721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.890341, "energy": 42.70363, "activity_lines": [ 73.257333, 73.475091, 71.483762, 69.474344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.800003, "volume": 2462, "typical_volume": 3668.3, "trend": 67.205667, "fair_value": 51.914103, "relative_strength": 0.441967, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.842477, "energy": 27.573615, "activity_lines": [ 72.162001, 73.047819, 71.662381, 69.734839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.959999, "volume": 3454, "typical_volume": 3659.2, "trend": 67.59, "fair_value": 52.086442, "relative_strength": -1.531806, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.956074, "energy": 25.219088, "activity_lines": [ 71.190667, 72.461091, 71.719, 69.912538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.519997, "volume": 1647, "typical_volume": 3682.1, "trend": 67.93, "fair_value": 52.275513, "relative_strength": -2.331885, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.220881, "energy": 25.834382, "activity_lines": [ 71.031332, 72.183818, 71.887286, 70.166086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }