{ "ticker": { "uuid": "752073ad-2f62-4902-b3de-318cd3b82147", "symbol": "SRV", "name": "NXG Cushing Midstream Energy Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.763, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.747, "architecture_energy": 17.219, "architecture_maturity": 88.593, "architecture_confidence": 81.061, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.58, "rotation_up": 31.98, "upward_expansion": 58.46, "deceleration": 84.41, "rotation_down": 27.84, "downward_expansion": 19.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.575893, 47.844662, 47.51491, 46.468079 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 46.37, "trend_reference": 44.688445, "distance_from_trend": 0.037628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.416887, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.347304, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.145949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.17124, "excess_performance": 0.045615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037628, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09205, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.347304, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090532, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001459, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.17124, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.713745, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 272596, "relative_activity": 0.90386, "balance": 0.713745, "dry_up": 1.365092, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065879, "annualized_volatility": 0.259118, "from_high_reference": -0.091219, "from_low_reference": 0.36497 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.688445, "fair_value_reference": 34.416887, "structural_low": 39.575865, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.013174, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.013324, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.142043, "worst_return": -0.200432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.027355, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.023244, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.228957, "worst_return": -0.177878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.056703, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.053337, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.152764, "worst_return": -0.039642, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 34.019062, "relative_strength": 7.285934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.342649, "energy": 37.701299, "activity_lines": [ 48.289169, 48.020082, 47.122154, 45.765366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.69, "volume": 289213, "typical_volume": 300233.0, "trend": 44.086503, "fair_value": 34.171329, "relative_strength": 12.153167, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.286384, "energy": 41.33227, "activity_lines": [ 48.862654, 48.329287, 47.477803, 46.155681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.95, "volume": 450317, "typical_volume": 304758.35, "trend": 44.391341, "fair_value": 34.298369, "relative_strength": 4.67056, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.494185, "energy": 30.820186, "activity_lines": [ 48.281107, 48.123419, 47.533147, 46.340423 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.37, "volume": 272596, "typical_volume": 301590.95, "trend": 44.688445, "fair_value": 34.416887, "relative_strength": -0.145949, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.746956, "energy": 17.218924, "activity_lines": [ 47.575893, 47.844662, 47.51491, 46.468079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }