{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75211923-c6d3-4462-94f1-f863c2d2f303", "symbol": "AEI", "name": "Aeris Environmental Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.255, "architecture_energy": 63.038, "architecture_maturity": 65.195, "architecture_confidence": 94.063, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.83, "rotation_up": 23.11, "upward_expansion": 11.35, "deceleration": 54.89, "rotation_down": 62.87, "downward_expansion": 87.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0318, 0.032545, 0.035124, 0.037241 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.035, "trend_reference": 0.040767, "distance_from_trend": -0.141455, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.051551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.321064, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.607504, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.3, "excess_performance": -0.363706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141455, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147141, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.321064, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146669, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173597, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.818815, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126745, "relative_activity": 0.889905, "balance": 0.818815, "dry_up": 0.535238, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074725, "annualized_volatility": 0.591222, "from_high_reference": -0.416667, "from_low_reference": 0.521739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.040767, "fair_value_reference": 0.051551, "structural_low": 0.023, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.030556, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.042175, "regime_survival": 0.925, "best_return": 0.460317, "worst_return": -0.434783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.123711, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.163773, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.72, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.342525, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.357565, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.818182, "worst_return": -0.474227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19403, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192771, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.224138, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": 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95181, "typical_volume": 208331.8, "trend": 0.042167, "fair_value": 0.051519, "relative_strength": -34.043467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.810029, "energy": 92.137238, "activity_lines": [ 0.031, 0.033327, 0.036195, 0.038432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.03, "volume": 40000, "typical_volume": 186145.3, "trend": 0.0413, "fair_value": 0.051519, "relative_strength": -35.239554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.786079, "energy": 90.436835, "activity_lines": [ 0.030333, 0.0324, 0.0354, 0.037647 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.035, "volume": 126745, "typical_volume": 142425.3, "trend": 0.040767, "fair_value": 0.051551, "relative_strength": -26.607504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.254569, "energy": 63.038032, "activity_lines": [ 0.0318, 0.032545, 0.035124, 0.037241 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }