{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75212336-da10-40ac-99e7-5e858f93350e", "symbol": "FDG", "name": "AMERICAN CENTURY ETF TRUST FOCUSED DYNAMIC GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.127, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.813, "architecture_energy": 18.764, "architecture_maturity": 47.956, "architecture_confidence": 79.669, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.75, "rotation_up": 28.31, "upward_expansion": 49.46, "deceleration": 80.68, "rotation_down": 36.53, "downward_expansion": 29.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 129.5725, 129.988727, 131.196471, 129.045199 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 135.5108, "trend_reference": 126.72652, "distance_from_trend": 0.069317, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 100.088649, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353908, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.19079, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125225, "excess_performance": -0.0004, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069317, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014888, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353908, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05454, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125225, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.044796, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39351, "relative_activity": 0.429708, "balance": 1.044796, "dry_up": 0.679235, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048243, "annualized_volatility": 0.254161, "from_high_reference": -0.042055, "from_low_reference": 0.246191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 126.72652, "fair_value_reference": 100.088649, "structural_low": 108.74, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.005243, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.005389, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.108079, "worst_return": -0.050258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01428, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025279, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.20118, "worst_return": -0.186316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.059433, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.002951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219892, "worst_return": -0.161101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.080084, "energy": 37.940386, "activity_lines": [ 134.3834, 134.796453, 129.625853, 127.643872 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 127.47, "volume": 172958, "typical_volume": 103057.55, "trend": 126.155317, "fair_value": 97.660392, "relative_strength": -3.811262, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.743051, "energy": 23.712812, "activity_lines": [ 131.742767, 133.5975, 129.800902, 127.737214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 132.0868, "volume": 46157, "typical_volume": 96789.75, "trend": 126.36221, "fair_value": 98.089987, "relative_strength": -2.442273, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.696345, "energy": 22.620664, "activity_lines": [ 131.3464, 133.273602, 130.382123, 128.119891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 133.8577, "volume": 49095, "typical_volume": 96155.55, "trend": 126.6518, "fair_value": 98.513138, "relative_strength": -2.469734, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.416242, "energy": 20.410171, "activity_lines": [ 132.060447, 133.23338, 131.060255, 128.603471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 128.0436, "volume": 61957, "typical_volume": 94324.45, "trend": 126.720253, "fair_value": 98.900006, "relative_strength": -5.153751, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.114934, "energy": 19.312394, "activity_lines": [ 130.75928, 132.076913, 131.120483, 128.693264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 122.7402, "volume": 88416, "typical_volume": 94627.05, "trend": 126.51426, "fair_value": 99.24943, "relative_strength": -8.416795, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.242308, "energy": 14.219702, "activity_lines": [ 127.939473, 130.106084, 130.634084, 128.436487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 126.967, "volume": 59083, "typical_volume": 95115.1, "trend": 126.528493, "fair_value": 99.638067, "relative_strength": -6.183585, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.622062, "energy": 15.33042, "activity_lines": [ 127.315253, 129.169942, 130.532923, 128.465696 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.5108, "volume": 39351, "typical_volume": 91576.2, "trend": 126.72652, "fair_value": 100.088649, "relative_strength": -3.19079, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.812939, "energy": 18.764419, "activity_lines": [ 129.5725, 129.988727, 131.196471, 129.045199 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }