{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7524ea3e-08f4-4266-bde7-87b6b80e27bb", "symbol": "NTGR", "name": "NETGEAR Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.769, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.111, "architecture_energy": 15.623, "architecture_maturity": 27.651, "architecture_confidence": 50.203, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.8, "rotation_up": 42.75, "upward_expansion": 54.94, "deceleration": 64.42, "rotation_down": 17.63, "downward_expansion": 20.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.841333, 23.446727, 24.006286, 23.747978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 23.67, "trend_reference": 23.198, "distance_from_trend": 0.020347, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.266635, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113011, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.495123, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.154634, "excess_performance": -0.032819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020347, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113011, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230596, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050599, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154634, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.635277, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2078765, "relative_activity": 0.945242, "balance": 0.635277, "dry_up": 0.923895, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100907, "annualized_volatility": 0.453857, "from_high_reference": -0.357868, "from_low_reference": 0.245789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.198, "fair_value_reference": 21.266635, "structural_low": 19.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.034776, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.038658, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.1839, "worst_return": -0.09882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091551, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.135846, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140661, "worst_return": -0.287615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004799, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.247575, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.753726, "worst_return": -0.279427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.255374, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.306016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.144429, "worst_return": -0.483355, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.567213, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046128, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.39309, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012856, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.227865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080748, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04186, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051624, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065226, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002442, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.132099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026898, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.79, "volume": 1328466, "typical_volume": 1120822.15, "trend": 15.889, "fair_value": 26.863814, "relative_strength": -39.291244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"typical_volume": 2236101.5, "trend": 23.203, "fair_value": 21.133878, "relative_strength": -10.013945, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.542116, "energy": 14.072479, "activity_lines": [ 23.276667, 23.378909, 24.028905, 23.655806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.16, "volume": 1977899, "typical_volume": 2213338.45, "trend": 23.198333, "fair_value": 21.198494, "relative_strength": -13.036308, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.421262, "energy": 13.153392, "activity_lines": [ 23.684667, 23.442545, 24.047095, 23.717548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.67, "volume": 2078765, "typical_volume": 2199188.3, "trend": 23.198, "fair_value": 21.266635, "relative_strength": -18.495123, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.110622, "energy": 15.623022, "activity_lines": [ 23.841333, 23.446727, 24.006286, 23.747978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }