{ "ticker": { "uuid": "752ddcda-eaa1-44c9-8ab9-6cad3d76df96", "symbol": "PTON", "name": "Peloton Interactive Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 73.213, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.598, "architecture_energy": 37.159, "architecture_maturity": 16.554, "architecture_confidence": 74.939, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.28, "rotation_up": 54.16, "upward_expansion": 80.16, "deceleration": 53.38, "rotation_down": 20.6, "downward_expansion": 4.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.02, 5.941091, 5.795762, 5.503419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.68, "trend_reference": 5.2485, "distance_from_trend": 0.082214, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.902724, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037732, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.389246, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.228108, "excess_performance": 0.040654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082214, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047603, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.037732, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027846, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193892, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067934, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.228108, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.290525, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73793596, "relative_activity": 1.209385, "balance": 1.290525, "dry_up": 0.745231, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118025, "annualized_volatility": 0.475461, "from_high_reference": -0.382609, "from_low_reference": 0.556164 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.2485, "fair_value_reference": 5.902724, "structural_low": 3.65, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.081794, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.087793, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.519108, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.233138, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.206068, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.952183, "worst_return": -0.52027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.467445, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.525054, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309771, "worst_return": -0.510554, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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45.456658, "energy": 29.375983, "activity_lines": [ 5.77, 5.775455, 5.49481, 5.300387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.12, "volume": 39658850, "typical_volume": 62077989.8, "trend": 5.2775, "fair_value": 5.94625, "relative_strength": -11.646325, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.627895, "energy": 40.830028, "activity_lines": [ 5.9, 5.842545, 5.591095, 5.35457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.08, "volume": 31208663, "typical_volume": 61179784.85, "trend": 5.278167, "fair_value": 5.929391, "relative_strength": -10.325629, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.936823, "energy": 45.536791, "activity_lines": [ 5.978667, 5.894545, 5.673571, 5.406344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.39, "volume": 37227149, "typical_volume": 60464596.2, "trend": 5.287167, "fair_value": 5.914776, "relative_strength": -5.779916, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.388963, "energy": 56.677019, "activity_lines": [ 6.14, 5.988545, 5.774857, 5.478075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.68, "volume": 73793596, "typical_volume": 61017441.45, "trend": 5.2485, "fair_value": 5.902724, "relative_strength": -19.389246, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.597955, "energy": 37.159216, "activity_lines": [ 6.02, 5.941091, 5.795762, 5.503419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }