{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7531674f-e1e0-43bd-b7b1-a1db622b869e", "symbol": "601949", "name": "China Publishing & Media Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.031, "architecture_energy": 26.399, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.317, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.33, "rotation_up": 28.91, "upward_expansion": 21.88, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 26.81, "downward_expansion": 60.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.168668, 5.032246, 5.197916, 5.506131 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.28, "trend_reference": 5.965996, "distance_from_trend": -0.114984, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.914179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.236352, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.725699, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.274725, "excess_performance": -0.231521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114984, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.236352, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039376, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.274725, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.340909, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74719967, "relative_activity": 1.689809, "balance": 0.340909, "dry_up": 1.449017, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071178, "annualized_volatility": 0.307036, "from_high_reference": -0.346535, "from_low_reference": 0.179035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.965996, "fair_value_reference": 6.914179, "structural_low": 4.47824, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.008022, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.003514, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.136207, "worst_return": -0.126065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.021572, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.07913, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.248705, "worst_return": -0.214122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006362, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053619, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.956322, "worst_return": -0.182648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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40.254257, "activity_lines": [ 5.062271, 4.97879, 5.220296, 5.552905 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.28, "volume": 74719967, "typical_volume": 44217989.85, "trend": 5.965996, "fair_value": 6.914179, "relative_strength": -15.725699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.031272, "energy": 26.399425, "activity_lines": [ 5.168668, 5.032246, 5.197916, 5.506131 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }