{ "ticker": { "uuid": "753a5a75-e753-4fdf-8539-353e8ad88c0f", "symbol": "605060", "name": "Allied Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.876, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.078, "architecture_energy": 77.038, "architecture_maturity": 15.415, "architecture_confidence": 77.097, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.89, "rotation_up": 8.91, "upward_expansion": 18.09, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 74.08, "downward_expansion": 91.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.458, 42.939286, 47.606533, 49.863577 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.25, "trend_reference": 50.762138, "distance_from_trend": -0.167687, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.876421, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.632761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.417934, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032295, "excess_performance": 0.010909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167687, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058375, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.632761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.066064, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004179, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.698686, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032295, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.22906, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24767151, "relative_activity": 0.863612, "balance": 0.22906, "dry_up": 0.896834, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1625, "annualized_volatility": 0.793246, "from_high_reference": -0.429054, "from_low_reference": 0.900585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.762138, "fair_value_reference": 25.876421, "structural_low": 32.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.041301, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.04561, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.142617, "worst_return": -0.13122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.103139, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.068831, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.376559, "worst_return": -0.236788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.134529, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.128638, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.846218, "worst_return": -0.360725, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -4.133187, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.698587, "energy": 49.617423, "activity_lines": [ 46.090759, 48.05333, 51.595926, 52.203625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.34, "volume": 29067587, "typical_volume": 29655637.0, "trend": 50.672138, "fair_value": 25.732691, "relative_strength": -6.984239, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.556751, "energy": 64.861583, "activity_lines": [ 42.539066, 45.786891, 50.046668, 51.34796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.0, "volume": 25312864, "typical_volume": 29110559.2, "trend": 50.585804, "fair_value": 25.782464, "relative_strength": -11.327391, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.837603, "energy": 82.574515, "activity_lines": [ 39.543333, 43.629907, 48.481648, 50.401371 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.25, "volume": 24767151, "typical_volume": 28678559.3, "trend": 50.762138, "fair_value": 25.876421, "relative_strength": 0.417934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.078341, "energy": 77.03785, "activity_lines": [ 39.458, 42.939286, 47.606533, 49.863577 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }