{ "ticker": { "uuid": "753d6641-6304-4740-b00f-a8b08e3b7ba9", "symbol": "EBIZ", "name": "Global X E-commerce UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.526, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 64.859, "architecture_energy": 85.455, "architecture_maturity": 15.816, "architecture_confidence": 61.103, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.02, "rotation_up": 79.09, "upward_expansion": 66.82, "deceleration": 23.67, "rotation_down": 16.03, "downward_expansion": 27.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.186667, 11.831891, 11.564305, 11.486056 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.7, "trend_reference": 11.569667, "distance_from_trend": 0.097698, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.229423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130957, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.504691, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.059746, "excess_performance": -0.111145, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097698, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043059, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130957, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087955, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083789, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059746, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.015127, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120, "relative_activity": 0.117815, "balance": 3.015127, "dry_up": 0.522802, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026154, "annualized_volatility": 0.224279, "from_high_reference": -0.110146, "from_low_reference": 0.194507 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.569667, "fair_value_reference": 11.229423, "structural_low": 10.632, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034796, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.000178, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.085999, "worst_return": -0.045487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.050009, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.008957, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068792, "worst_return": 0.031226, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.051731, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066102, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113514, "worst_return": -0.010052, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015215, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055888, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056218, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056227, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007698, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034827, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049342, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064543, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.892, "volume": 1817, "typical_volume": 4698.7, "trend": 7.8102, "fair_value": 8.416804, "relative_strength": -6.25352, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.045848, "energy": 63.066126, 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"direction": 1.951457, "energy": 5.012794, "activity_lines": [ 11.317067, 11.257309, 11.239457, 11.367376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.93, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 1030.65, "trend": 11.679867, "fair_value": 11.155679, "relative_strength": -16.432702, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 25.487891, "energy": 36.241135, "activity_lines": [ 11.554533, 11.384327, 11.307486, 11.380723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.624, "volume": 844, "typical_volume": 1034.4, "trend": 11.631467, "fair_value": 11.176474, "relative_strength": -17.916932, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.359437, "energy": 37.600191, "activity_lines": [ 11.6292, 11.445927, 11.342648, 11.377118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.222, "volume": 1153, "typical_volume": 1024.75, "trend": 11.602, "fair_value": 11.200423, "relative_strength": -13.795164, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.67017, "energy": 72.562914, "activity_lines": [ 11.8628, 11.605891, 11.433105, 11.415217 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.7, "volume": 120, "typical_volume": 1018.55, "trend": 11.569667, "fair_value": 11.229423, "relative_strength": -12.504691, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 64.858795, "energy": 85.454756, "activity_lines": [ 12.186667, 11.831891, 11.564305, 11.486056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }