{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75406211-79f9-42a1-be89-92a195b88835", "symbol": "6216", "name": "DrayTek Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.572, "architecture_energy": 46.956, "architecture_maturity": 55.046, "architecture_confidence": 92.88, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.3, "rotation_up": 22.52, "upward_expansion": 6.65, "deceleration": 50.51, "rotation_down": 54.46, "downward_expansion": 79.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.01, 22.236363, 22.645714, 23.327204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.299999, "trend_reference": 24.445, "distance_from_trend": -0.087748, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.850138, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.277151, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.426561, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.177122, "excess_performance": -0.618494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087748, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053009, "read": "Falling" 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21.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.001562, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.050983, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.05283, "worst_return": -0.138522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.059444, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.175093, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.067347, "worst_return": -0.138814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.113127, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.294534, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.077551, "worst_return": -0.218826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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47.972566, "activity_lines": [ 22.346667, 22.578182, 23.092857, 23.859785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.75, "volume": 870019, "typical_volume": 994539.05, "trend": 24.731667, "fair_value": 30.880953, "relative_strength": -39.429251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.813012, "energy": 52.767215, "activity_lines": [ 22.11, 22.407273, 22.903333, 23.656882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.9, "volume": 578194, "typical_volume": 995415.2, "trend": 24.578333, "fair_value": 30.864398, "relative_strength": -39.475988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.50745, "energy": 58.793565, "activity_lines": [ 21.95, 22.280909, 22.745952, 23.474194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 22.299999, "volume": 872600, "typical_volume": 1008793.95, "trend": 24.445, "fair_value": 30.850138, "relative_strength": -39.426561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.571769, "energy": 46.955576, "activity_lines": [ 22.01, 22.236363, 22.645714, 23.327204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }