{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75495ff2-de28-4794-b585-72a1dc346995", "symbol": "40W", "name": "ZICO Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 83.728, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.131, "architecture_energy": 45.328, "architecture_maturity": 19.608, "architecture_confidence": 86.04, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.09, "rotation_up": 61.44, "upward_expansion": 39.35, "deceleration": 29.04, "rotation_down": 15.05, "downward_expansion": 25.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0536, 0.051673, 0.049414, 0.050232 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.06, "trend_reference": 0.053567, "distance_from_trend": 0.1201, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.049103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.221932, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.213581, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.189189, "excess_performance": -0.344024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.1201, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.221932, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.370555, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012136, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188256, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.189189, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 27.697773, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2048400, "relative_activity": 2.846819, "balance": 27.697773, "dry_up": 3.608416, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.613064, "from_high_reference": -0.325843, "from_low_reference": 1.068966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.053567, "fair_value_reference": 0.049103, "structural_low": 0.037, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": -0.01462, "regime_survival": 0.56, "best_return": 0.272727, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.048842, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.051709, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.323529, "worst_return": -0.319149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.044286, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.06461, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.911765, "worst_return": -0.12766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.162745, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.259637, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.054054, "worst_return": -0.393939, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.394737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.208333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135135, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.339286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.294118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.155556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.066, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 146735.0, "trend": 0.067767, "fair_value": 0.080237, "relative_strength": -4.552872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"trend": 0.054633, "fair_value": 0.049391, "relative_strength": -12.758283, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.55169, "energy": 17.897731, "activity_lines": [ 0.049333, 0.048364, 0.047633, 0.050662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 271855.0, "trend": 0.054433, "fair_value": 0.049288, "relative_strength": -13.204604, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.675665, "energy": 15.833919, "activity_lines": [ 0.049733, 0.048818, 0.047762, 0.050363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 240195.0, "trend": 0.054367, "fair_value": 0.049212, "relative_strength": -14.212633, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.902088, "energy": 15.260491, "activity_lines": [ 0.049867, 0.049145, 0.047962, 0.050077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.051, "volume": 8337200, "typical_volume": 625710.0, "trend": 0.054233, "fair_value": 0.049141, "relative_strength": -12.875184, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.011554, "energy": 12.054304, "activity_lines": [ 0.050333, 0.049655, 0.048267, 0.04986 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.06, "volume": 2048400, "typical_volume": 719540.0, "trend": 0.053567, "fair_value": 0.049103, "relative_strength": 1.213581, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.131229, "energy": 45.328045, "activity_lines": [ 0.0536, 0.051673, 0.049414, 0.050232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }