{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7555702c-eaa3-40ba-9114-ef229b09f2ea", "symbol": "1103", "name": "Chia Hsin Cement Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 86.909, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.18, "architecture_energy": 12.798, "architecture_maturity": 8.019, "architecture_confidence": 39.454, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.99, "rotation_up": 37.37, "upward_expansion": 40.31, "deceleration": 24.21, "rotation_down": 23.97, "downward_expansion": 43.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.135085, 13.096223, 13.037076, 13.065391 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.15, "trend_reference": 13.146937, "distance_from_trend": 0.000233, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.964166, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121234, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.822917, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012514, "excess_performance": -0.453886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000233, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004237, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121234, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07039, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084436, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012514, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.026242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1130855, "relative_activity": 0.665614, "balance": 2.026242, "dry_up": 1.39688, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028347, "annualized_volatility": 0.120114, "from_high_reference": -0.046922, "from_low_reference": 0.07268 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.146937, "fair_value_reference": 14.964166, "structural_low": 12.35516, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.004997, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.021384, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.053977, "worst_return": -0.104477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.013576, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.033987, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.099432, "worst_return": -0.109453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.044386, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.058874, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.05042, "worst_return": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02507, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050704, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.150393, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01083, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": 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13.007225, 12.997756, 13.073796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.15, "volume": 2866456, "typical_volume": 1559090.65, "trend": 13.173281, "fair_value": 15.070837, "relative_strength": -28.100326, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.08192, "energy": 6.049396, "activity_lines": [ 13.055982, 13.046852, 13.008669, 13.071212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.1, "volume": 3999999, "typical_volume": 1663685.2, "trend": 13.161252, "fair_value": 15.036561, "relative_strength": -26.559924, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.172008, "energy": 6.785774, "activity_lines": [ 13.08141, 13.064684, 13.015384, 13.066484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.15, "volume": 1495691, "typical_volume": 1688966.15, "trend": 13.155697, "fair_value": 14.999642, "relative_strength": -27.206712, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.615188, "energy": 8.23007, "activity_lines": [ 13.109102, 13.082435, 13.026291, 13.065758 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.15, "volume": 1130855, "typical_volume": 1698964.75, "trend": 13.146937, "fair_value": 14.964166, "relative_strength": -28.822917, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.180142, "energy": 12.797959, "activity_lines": [ 13.135085, 13.096223, 13.037076, 13.065391 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }