{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75586e2b-0812-4b6f-b3e3-1818503ea459", "symbol": "688355", "name": "Suzhou Mingzhi Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.649, "architecture_energy": 63.335, "architecture_maturity": 13.759, "architecture_confidence": 90.962, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.88, "rotation_up": 16.9, "upward_expansion": 18.72, "deceleration": 32.48, "rotation_down": 63.9, "downward_expansion": 85.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.815334, 17.488444, 18.82208, 19.55648 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.690001, "trend_reference": 20.147754, "distance_from_trend": -0.121986, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.522958, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009533, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.432854, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.124691, "excess_performance": -0.081487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121986, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009533, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284225, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094329, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202208, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.336059, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8001397, "relative_activity": 0.836352, "balance": 0.336059, "dry_up": 1.092615, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145109, "annualized_volatility": 0.684663, "from_high_reference": -0.275561, "from_low_reference": 0.276335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.147754, "fair_value_reference": 17.522958, "structural_low": 13.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.015449, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013791, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.263455, "worst_return": -0.318133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047978, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.033741, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.266037, "worst_return": -0.29037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.041111, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.073222, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.327593, "worst_return": -0.268293, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.50781, "energy": 40.092494, "activity_lines": [ 17.6, 17.978762, 19.460201, 19.985717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.01, "volume": 8735684, "typical_volume": 9697544.05, "trend": 20.151421, "fair_value": 17.569206, "relative_strength": -16.015818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.793354, "energy": 55.711706, "activity_lines": [ 16.918667, 17.516965, 19.047188, 19.715281 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.690001, "volume": 8001397, "typical_volume": 9567020.15, "trend": 20.147754, "fair_value": 17.522958, "relative_strength": -9.432854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.649192, "energy": 63.334865, "activity_lines": [ 16.815334, 17.488444, 18.82208, 19.55648 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }