{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7558d8df-a01c-49dc-880e-891b77e06e14", "symbol": "8AZ", "name": "Aztech Global Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -51.654, "architecture_energy": 74.274, "architecture_maturity": 20.772, "architecture_confidence": 88.21, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.73, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 30.69, "deceleration": 49.2, "rotation_down": 71.21, "downward_expansion": 53.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.714028, 0.776511, 0.830575, 0.811782 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.605, "trend_reference": 0.765478, "distance_from_trend": -0.209645, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.619154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02286, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.14203, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.059135, "excess_performance": -0.0957, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209645, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125207, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02286, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.668961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25142, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.724051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059135, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.123798, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17583000, "relative_activity": 1.343336, "balance": 0.123798, "dry_up": 0.80569, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11469, "annualized_volatility": 0.547661, "from_high_reference": -0.444954, "from_low_reference": 0.137267 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.765478, "fair_value_reference": 0.619154, "structural_low": 0.571221, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.05239, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.066897, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.031446, "worst_return": -0.073333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.007547, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081761, "worst_return": -0.066667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.060205, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.121498, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055695, "worst_return": -0.176106, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.093291, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.04343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111479, "worst_return": 0.075103, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.075738, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093334, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084506, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072073, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123809, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034484, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045113, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053848, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.313731, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058149, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090015, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.47887, "volume": 2265300, "typical_volume": 3069215.0, "trend": 0.48215, "fair_value": 0.549759, "relative_strength": -0.757319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.964339, 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"activity_lines": [ 0.86332, 0.883234, 0.86989, 0.817137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.833538, "volume": 4773400, "typical_volume": 12883050.0, "trend": 0.752052, "fair_value": 0.615027, "relative_strength": 6.142029, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.765931, "energy": 15.88566, "activity_lines": [ 0.852725, 0.870394, 0.870496, 0.822996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.833538, "volume": 3875700, "typical_volume": 12494495.0, "trend": 0.760941, "fair_value": 0.617216, "relative_strength": 4.473685, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.965646, "energy": 14.761156, "activity_lines": [ 0.844228, 0.859943, 0.870269, 0.828253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.664846, "volume": 15950800, "typical_volume": 12638045.0, "trend": 0.764207, "fair_value": 0.618387, "relative_strength": -17.059391, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -25.219986, "energy": 32.890916, "activity_lines": [ 0.78293, 0.821121, 0.853225, 0.822053 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.605, "volume": 17583000, "typical_volume": 13089060.0, "trend": 0.765478, "fair_value": 0.619154, "relative_strength": -25.14203, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.654327, "energy": 74.274131, "activity_lines": [ 0.714028, 0.776511, 0.830575, 0.811782 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }