{ "ticker": { "uuid": "755ed5bd-3f86-473b-a72d-52bc6d604af7", "symbol": "QTWO", "name": "Q2 Holdings", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 55.36, "architecture_energy": 73.145, "architecture_maturity": 21.157, "architecture_confidence": 60.817, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.05, "rotation_up": 79.84, "upward_expansion": 67.69, "deceleration": 18.03, "rotation_down": 16.23, "downward_expansion": 23.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.860667, 54.993455, 51.645429, 50.944237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 62.81, "trend_reference": 51.718333, "distance_from_trend": 0.214463, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 64.803013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030755, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.911466, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.101543, "excess_performance": -0.024082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.214463, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118232, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030755, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175522, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079115, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.287742, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.497756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4364992, "relative_activity": 1.065348, "balance": 1.497756, "dry_up": 1.239024, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087954, "annualized_volatility": 0.459778, "from_high_reference": -0.262707, "from_low_reference": 0.539838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.718333, "fair_value_reference": 64.803013, "structural_low": 40.79, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.066834, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079169, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.100778, "worst_return": -0.203796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.27708, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.289676, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076429, "worst_return": -0.285231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.142776, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.242365, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.019562, "worst_return": -0.26599, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.158437, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073926, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.221588, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057001, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089073, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": 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"trend": 52.260667, "fair_value": 64.435769, "relative_strength": -17.625263, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.404985, "energy": 33.013598, "activity_lines": [ 53.41, 50.511091, 49.174524, 49.689785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.87, "volume": 7668868, "typical_volume": 4062544.65, "trend": 51.975333, "fair_value": 64.615641, "relative_strength": -8.333797, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.245855, "energy": 64.774716, "activity_lines": [ 56.244, 52.71, 50.347524, 50.245226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.81, "volume": 4364992, "typical_volume": 4097246.95, "trend": 51.718333, "fair_value": 64.803013, "relative_strength": -7.911466, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.360374, "energy": 73.144749, "activity_lines": [ 58.860667, 54.993455, 51.645429, 50.944237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }