{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75692534-4f6d-483d-9c66-5f4e3efb6c3e", "symbol": "569", "name": "Vicplas International Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.975, "architecture_energy": 22.559, "architecture_maturity": 91.188, "architecture_confidence": 95.469, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.75, "rotation_up": 30.38, "upward_expansion": 19.59, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 28.41, "downward_expansion": 67.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.079, 0.077691, 0.079671, 0.081978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.085, "trend_reference": 0.0852, "distance_from_trend": -0.002347, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.09989, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149062, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.923506, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076087, "excess_performance": -0.230922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002347, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060985, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149062, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015939, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.264341, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35200, "relative_activity": 0.214752, "balance": 0.264341, "dry_up": 0.271185, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040724, "annualized_volatility": 0.234031, "from_high_reference": -0.158416, "from_low_reference": 0.164384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0852, "fair_value_reference": 0.09989, "structural_low": 0.073, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.475, "median_excess_return": -0.016949, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.175676, "worst_return": -0.12963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.029266, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.062925, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.144932, "worst_return": -0.339373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.060162, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049651, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.276316, "worst_return": -0.24126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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0.1014, "relative_strength": -27.670865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.286829, "energy": 88.287687, "activity_lines": [ 0.075933, 0.078109, 0.081638, 0.084112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.073, "volume": 52400, "typical_volume": 228865.0, "trend": 0.0865, "fair_value": 0.101012, "relative_strength": -29.455173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.305828, "energy": 91.377268, "activity_lines": [ 0.0746, 0.076782, 0.080562, 0.083189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.077, "volume": 4900, "typical_volume": 200150.0, "trend": 0.085867, "fair_value": 0.100576, "relative_strength": -26.066805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.155041, "energy": 68.819517, "activity_lines": [ 0.075067, 0.076455, 0.079952, 0.082576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.077, "volume": 85300, "typical_volume": 176225.0, "trend": 0.0854, "fair_value": 0.100213, "relative_strength": -25.965825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.248225, "energy": 60.56243, "activity_lines": [ 0.075733, 0.076273, 0.079405, 0.082004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.085, "volume": 35200, "typical_volume": 163910.0, "trend": 0.0852, "fair_value": 0.09989, "relative_strength": -18.923506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.975022, "energy": 22.558949, "activity_lines": [ 0.079, 0.077691, 0.079671, 0.081978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }