{ "ticker": { "uuid": "756a16f2-322b-4fc6-b332-48afda0d91ef", "symbol": "GNSN", "name": "GN Store Nord A/S", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.786, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.092, "architecture_energy": 17.585, "architecture_maturity": 51.506, "architecture_confidence": 49.255, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.59, "rotation_up": 43.0, "upward_expansion": 27.28, "deceleration": 37.91, "rotation_down": 12.21, "downward_expansion": 47.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.773333, 12.502091, 12.577405, 12.672903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.205, "trend_reference": 12.957333, "distance_from_trend": 0.019114, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.572756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.248553, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.131643, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002644, "excess_performance": -0.17689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019114, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.248553, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060753, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002644, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 4.403343, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036029, "annualized_volatility": 0.349734, "from_high_reference": -0.203559, "from_low_reference": 0.150261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.957333, "fair_value_reference": 17.572756, "structural_low": 11.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.010777, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.012408, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.397561, "worst_return": -0.447067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.043637, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.115964, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.303254, "worst_return": -0.370585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.083257, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.159119, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.408069, "worst_return": -0.501327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.27666, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.452356, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.245475, "worst_return": -0.526779, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.098456, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172405, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.15806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046427, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080779, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048276, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165207, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059049, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125746, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 18.91, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 23.85, "trend": 22.413167, "fair_value": 43.697772, "relative_strength": -15.61757, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", 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17.849583, "relative_strength": -28.271134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.524643, "energy": 56.813455, "activity_lines": [ 12.091, 12.287273, 12.569, 12.780656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.225, "volume": 3164, "typical_volume": 196.75, "trend": 13.130333, "fair_value": 17.780833, "relative_strength": -26.104063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.560526, "energy": 50.884647, "activity_lines": [ 12.137333, 12.248364, 12.52819, 12.718914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.28, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 196.75, "trend": 13.075, "fair_value": 17.702692, "relative_strength": -26.211194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.823861, "energy": 34.919732, "activity_lines": [ 12.193, 12.229091, 12.494214, 12.664054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.025, "volume": 2526, "typical_volume": 323.05, "trend": 13.017833, "fair_value": 17.635673, "relative_strength": -21.339927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.682339, "energy": 12.689814, "activity_lines": [ 12.496333, 12.352818, 12.530524, 12.660828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.205, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 323.05, "trend": 12.957333, "fair_value": 17.572756, "relative_strength": -22.131643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.091722, "energy": 17.584911, "activity_lines": [ 12.773333, 12.502091, 12.577405, 12.672903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }