{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7574ffca-36a5-46ec-b29c-6e9c5db8fc4a", "symbol": "ELAA", "name": "The Est\u00e9e Lauder Companies Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.13, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.423, "architecture_energy": 3.468, "architecture_maturity": 21.19, "architecture_confidence": 65.877, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.53, "rotation_up": 21.78, "upward_expansion": 27.51, "deceleration": 46.22, "rotation_down": 26.52, "downward_expansion": 47.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.252001, 73.056364, 71.893238, 72.432484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 75.400002, "trend_reference": 76.017031, "distance_from_trend": -0.008117, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 104.234983, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.276634, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.670072, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.140158, "excess_performance": -0.204797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050304, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.276634, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140662, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176701, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128324, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140158, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.912381, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2056, "relative_activity": 1.009352, "balance": 0.912381, "dry_up": 0.68902, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053365, "annualized_volatility": 0.486306, "from_high_reference": -0.286535, "from_low_reference": 0.301183 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.017031, "fair_value_reference": 104.234983, "structural_low": 57.947271, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01634, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.039835, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.078674, "worst_return": -0.222122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.165159, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.179245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072472, "worst_return": -0.339726, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.210558, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.271223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.039218, "worst_return": -0.379964, "sufficient": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039752, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014925, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136531, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053097, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.076373, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 104.234983, "relative_strength": -17.670072, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.423349, "energy": 3.467632, "activity_lines": [ 73.252001, 73.056364, 71.893238, 72.432484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }